Karintak, Nagorno Karbakh  © Onnik James Krikorian 1994

On 19 September, following the death of seven Azerbaijanis in two separate incidents with landmines that Baku claims were laid by Armenian sabotage groups, fighting has once again broken out in the South Caucasus. In what Baku terms a “counter-terrorism operation” targeting ethnic Armenian separatist forces in what remains of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), some suspect the incident was simply a pretext for wrestling back control of the breakaway region.

For several weeks there had already been concerns that Azerbaijan had been amassing troops and military equipment along the line of contact with Karabakh despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers. The contingent had been deployed as part of a November 2020 ceasefire agreement with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

 

Indeed, in recent weeks there had also been serious concerns that separate parallel peace processes to end the conflict, facilitated or mediated by Russia, the European Union, and the United States, had faltered. A particular obstacle had been the inability of the sides to agree on any mechanism to discuss the rights and security of the ethnic Armenian population of the disputed region as part of Azerbaijan proper.

 

Though Armenia has acknowledged this likelihood, the de facto leadership in Karabakh had been more resistant, though there had been signs of progress. On 1 September, its de facto president resigned, leading to a successor being chosen by the national assembly rather than by popular vote, and an agreement was brokered by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to open roads for humanitarian aid.through Azerbaijan’s Lachin and Aghdam regions.

 

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