Stepanakert, Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik James Krikorian 1994

By a decree of its de-facto leader, Samvel Sharamanyan, the self-declared and internationally unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) was dissolved and will cease to exist by the end of 2023. NKR was declared by the Karabakh Armenians in 1991 to replace the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, which was established by the Soviets in 1923. Thus, the dissolution of NKR ends a hundred years during which Nagorno-Karabakh had its own political status and identity. No doubt, memories of these hundred years will linger on in the consciousness of both Armenians and Azerbaijanis for generations to come. Though the next 100 years remain uncertain, absorbed as it will be into the Azerbaijan’s Karabakh Economic Region, call it what you will – Nagorno Karabakh, Dağlıq Qarabağ, Karabakh, or Artsakh – the entity is gone and unlikely to return.

The pain and suffering experienced during three decades of conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis over the mountainous region is, however, unlikely to disappear. In the early 1990s, over 600,000 Azerbaijanis fled from advancing Armenian and local ethnic Armenian forces in the seven regions surrounding Karabakh, making the 2020 war inevitable. This time, however, it is reported that tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians left upon being presented with the difficult choice of either leaving their homes or living under Azerbaijani rule.

 

It had been hoped that the issue of the re/integration of Karabakh into Azerbaijan proper could have been resolved through albeit difficult negotiations, but attempts to bring Stepanakert and Baku together for talks failed. Despite many warnings, this left few prepared for Karabakh’s sudden dissolution let alone ready to cope with the consequences. Indeed, negotiations between Yerevan and Baku had appeared in deadlock on three major issues, with one concerning the rights and security of Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian population and their re/integration into Azerbaijan.

 

It was only in the aftermath of Baku’s blitzkrieg that those talks are now beginning over the fate of a population that has all but disappeared, leaving their homes, possessions, and the graves of their loved ones behind. The same had been true for the Azerbaijani IDPs that had left before them, albeit with those homes and monuments later razed to the ground. It is imperative that Baku does not make the same mistake as Yerevan and Stepanakert before it. Though it seems unlikely for now, the prospect of Karabakh Armenians returning must also be considered.

 

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The full opinion piece can be read here.