A tale of two meetings: More on Aliyev and Pashinyan at the Munich Security Conference

A tale of two meetings: More on Aliyev and Pashinyan at the Munich Security Conference

by | Feb 24, 2023 | Armenia, Azerbaijan, Balcani Caucaso, Nagorno Karabakh

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan meets with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in a meeting facilitated by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on 18 February 2023 © Official Photo

Actually, not a tale, but rather two articles on last weekend’s meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations, led respectively by Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, and the return to the stage of the two leaders at the annual Munich Security Conference. In the first, published by Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso, both events feature.

By some accounts it was a historic occasion. On 18 February, during the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany, the Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Georgian leaders shared the same stage for the first time since the former Soviet Union collapsed. The panel, “Moving Mountains: How to ensure security in the South Caucasus,” also included OSCE Secretary General Helga Scmid.

 

On the eve of the discussion, however, the name of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was noticeably absent. While some tweeted their abhorrence at this omission, others instead sighed in relief given that the last time he shared a stage with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the same event in 2020, the discussion quickly descended into bickering and mutual accusation.

 

“Never do this again,” tweeted International Crisis Group (ICG) Senior Analyst Olesya Vartanyan at the time.

 

But do it again they did, albeit in an extended format and even if Pashinyan’s presence came as a last minute surprise to everyone.

 

“His name was not mentioned in the initial proposal given to me,” Aliyev told reporters. “He probably decided to attend last night. I think this is a good development because, finally, some cooperation among the three South Caucasus countries can be started.”

 

The Azerbaijani President also told media that the idea of establishing a regional format in Tbilisi could be discussed, echoing similar comments from EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the Crisis in Georgia, Toivo Klaar, 10 days earlier.

 

“It is very important that the three countries of the South Caucasus work together and contribute to peace,” Klaar said in an interview with the Georgian Public Broadcaster. “And here the role of Georgia as a bridge between Armenia and Azerbaijan is very important.”

 

[…]

The full article is available here in English and in Italian here.

The second piece, this time for the Caspian Post, of course also covers both meetings and is my second article for them following one on the recent visit to Turkey by the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan.  Again, both the trilateral meeting and the panel discussion feature.

On February 18, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a significant move towards resolving the long-standing dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Saturday by bringing together Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The trilateral meeting, held on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, was attended by key officials from both sides currently involved in attempts to resolve the conflict.

 

It was also the first meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders since a summit convened by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi at the end of October 2022. Flanked by Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried and newly appointed Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations Louis L. Bono, Blinken was hopeful that a long-awaited peace agreement was possible.

 

“We believe that Armenia and Azerbaijan have a genuinely historic opportunity to secure enduring peace after more than 30 years of conflict,” the U.S. Secretary of State said in a brief opening address to media. The remainder of the meeting took place behind closed doors.

 

[…]

 

“As far as we understand in our communications with our American partners and partners from European Union, and also, as far as I understood from today’s trilateral meeting with Prime Minister Pashinyan, which was organized by Secretary Blinken, we have a common understanding that there should be a two-track approach to the situation in the region,” he said. “First, [the] Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks track. Second, Azerbaijan’s communications with the Armenian population in Karabakh,” Aliyev added […]. 

 

[…]

 

“Pleased to hear that the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process is on track and negotiations between the two sides are continuing,” he tweeted.

The full article is available here.

 

 

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MediaChecker.Ge

MediaChecker.Ge

by | Feb 21, 2023 | Georgia, Media, Social Media

Since the beginning of January I’ve been contributing to MediaChecker, a Georgian language media and digital literacy platform in Tbilisi run by a very capable team of local journalists under editor-in-chief George Gogua, a media professional that I’ve known for over 10 years now. Its mission statement is below.

Mediachecker is a media criticism and analysis platform that analyzes journalistic products published online, on television, and in the print media. We offer a space for discussion on professional standards and journalistic ethics. Journalists at the editorial office monitor broadcasters, the printed press, and the online media every day to prepare material about any revealed trends.

Anyway, two pieces have been published so far, with a third waiting in the wings.

 

 

Andrew Tate case raises concerns of social media as a gateway to harmful online content 

 

What happened?

 

On 27 December, social media influencer and former kickboxer Andrew Tate trolled environmental activist Greta Thunberg on Twitter, boasting of his collection of 33 luxury cars. The British-American asked Thunberg to give him her email address so he could send her a list of them along with their ‘enormous [carbon] emissions.’ 

 

Thunberg tweeted back with a put down that is currently the 4th most liked tweet on Twitter of all time. It simply read, ‘please do enlighten me. Email me at smalldickenergy@getalife.com.’ 

 

Her tweet was liked 3.9 million times.

 

Tate responded with a video rant that featured a Romanian pizza box. The same day he was arrested by police in Bucharest as part of an investigation into human trafficking and rape. Some believed Tate had given his location away because of the video, but that has been since been officially denied. 

 

Romanian police also raided his luxury home in Budapest and seized nearly $4 million of assets. This included 11 vehicles, the sale of which, if Tate is found guilty, could be used to financially compensate his victims.

 

What’s the problem?

 

In recent years, the use of social media by extremists has lured many into the clutches of radical and sometimes violent ideology. Though often minor in terms of the number of followers, individuals such as Tate had millions. 

 

A self-confessed misogynist, Tate used his social media platforms for hate speech, including racist and homophobic slurs, but especially outbursts against women. 

 

Why does this matter?

 

Social media has the power to influence impressionable minds online, and especially teenage boys. Moreover, experts warn, posts by individuals such as Tate could prove to be a ‘gateway’ to other extremist and violent content.

 

Broader Picture

 

According to Vice, multiple young women have been accusing Andrew Tate in violence and harassment. A documentary, released on January 12th, this year, contains several interviews with the victims in the UK, who have unsuccessfully trying to get the police investigate the matter.

 

In one of the videos, circulating in the social media, Tate even claimed he kept a machete next to his bed so that if ever a woman accused him of cheating, he would use it on her. He also said that rape victims were partly responsible for they own assault. 

 

Tate’s brand of ‘toxic masculinity’ has alarmed those concerned by the effect Tate has had on teenage boys who increasingly see him as a role model.

 

So, concerning is this influence on teenage boys that schools in the United Kingdom are even holding school meetings to address the effect that Tate’s posts have had on schoolchildren.

 

“Tate’s speeches not only scream of toxic masculinity, misogyny and victim blaming, but they express a deep lack of care for other people as human beings,” one teacher told The Independent newspaper.

 

What’s the background?

 

Andrew Tate, a self-professed misogynist, was eventually banned from YouTube, Instagram, and Facebook in 2022 for his comments about women. Meta, the company that owns Facebook, even said that Tate had been flagged under its ‘dangerous individuals and organizations’ criteria. 

 

Tate had been banned from Twitter too but was re-instated in November last year when Elon Musk acquired the company.

 

Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter has raised many concerns that the controversial multi-billionaire will allow it to become a safe-haven for far-right and other toxic ideologies despite the platform’s policy to prevent this under its previous ownership. 

The full piece in Georgian is here.

 

Chat GPT and the Future of Journalism 

 

What Happened? 

 

In recent months, social media has been full of text content automatically generated by a new artificially intelligent chatbot, Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer, better known to most as ChatGPT. 

 

It quickly caught the imagination of hundreds of thousands of users with its detailed responses to questions and its ability to perform tasks as diverse as writing poetry or song lyrics and even writing articles and stories. 

 

ChatGPT has also reportedly generated exam essays and even passed the finals for Masters Degree level university courses. 

 

Launched as a prototype in 30 November last year, ChatGPT’s parent company, OpenAI, is now valued at $29 billion.

 

Background

 

Having a computer generate responses to actual questions has long been a gold standard in testing artificial intelligence. In 1950, for example, Alan Turing, the English mathematician and computer scientist best known for deciphering German secret ciphers during World War II,  even devised the “Imitation Game” to evaluate just that. 

 

In what is also known as the Turing Test, the goal was for a computer to respond in such a way through text communication that the person asking the question thought they were actually conversing with another human. 

 

The test was not to determine whether the computer could answer questions correctly but whether or not its responses could imitate that. 

 

Though simplistic by today’s standards for benchmarking AI, The Turing Test remains an important measurement in artificial intelligence. 

 

Last Summer, it was claimed that Google’s LaMDA AI had passed the test while in December 2022 the same was claimed for ChatGPT. 

 

But many critics argue that fooling a panel of judges into thinking a computer was human is more about deception than actual intelligence.

 

Why does it matter?

 

The applications for artificial intelligence are far-reaching. Customer service call centres would have access to data and information more extensive than any human could.

 

Translation has already come a long way but machine learning would make it more accurate and support lesser-known minority languages.

 

AI-generated video can also assist producing compelling content even without a dedicated staff to do so.

 

Mediachecker already uses AI-generated thumbnails for its content.

 

Why should I care?

 

As they say, with great power comes great responsibility, but the world of artificial intelligence and algorithms remains unregulated with little oversight despite growing concerns in recent years.

 

In January 2023, the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism and the University of Oxford described ChatGPT’s speed and capabilities as ‘awe-inspiring and frightening at the same time.”

 

“We know from years of research that people will always use technologies in ways that their creators did not intend,” wrote Janet Haven for Nieman Lab. 

 

“We will see ChatGPT and tools like it used in adversarial ways that are intended to undermine trust in information environments,” she added.

 

The media, however, faces the greatest challenges.

In one test by the FastCompany, for example, ChatGPT invented quotes for an article.

 

“Unfortunately, often, when an inexperienced journalist uses artificial intelligence, instead of diversifying the material, it may even damage something,” Lennart Hofeditz recently told MediaChecker.

 

But there might be some cause for optimism. In another test by SkyNews, ChatGPT was asked if journalists need to adapt to artificial intelligence.

 

“It is important for journalists to be aware of the advances in AI and how they can potentially impact the journalism industry,” ChatGPT responded. “However, rather than needing to adapt to AI, it is more important for journalists to focus on honing their craft and staying up-to-date with the latest developments in their field.”

 The full piece in Georgian is here.

European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) starts operations on border with Azerbaijan

European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) starts operations on border with Azerbaijan

by | Feb 20, 2023 | Armenia, Azerbaijan, European Union, Nagorno Karabakh

Logo of the new Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) unarmed civilian European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) that will be headquartered in Yeghegnadzor, Vayots Dzor region.

The 100-strong European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) today started its two-year mission observing the border with Azerbaijan. The deployment follows the temporary two-month European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) that ended its duties on 19 December last year. With this in mind, last week I completed a 1,200-word article on EUMA that includes comments from Armenian and Azerbaijani analysts as well as those involved in the EU’s recruitment process for the mission. 

Unfortunately, however,  it won’t be published until towards the end of this week.

So, by means of a brief update until then, it is important to note that media reports saying EUMA would consist of 100 actual monitors were incorrect from the very start. For several weeks now, sources told me that it was likely that the unarmed civilian mission would instead consist of “not less than the 40 monitors for EUMCAP” while others said possibly as many as 60. Today, in an official statement from the European Council, it is now known that EUMA’s 100 staff will include ‘around 50 monitors.’

This should not come as any surprise given the need for support and administrative personnel.

It is also possible that some of the 50 monitors will also cover for the core team in cases of sick leave, vacation time, and other requirements depending on the situation. Basically, there is still plenty we don’t know about EUMA and in the article I also detailed some of the concerns surrounding EUMA that I touched upon in this blog post here. Ultimately, the EU will likely be continually assessing the effectiveness of the mission and modifying its operations as the deployment takes shape and any pressing issues emerge.

For now though, the deployment of EUMA is to be welcomed if those concerns and other outstanding issues can be addressed and resolved. Certainly, it seems that the EU is aware of them and this flexibility is likely built-in. Of immediate concern, however, is how EUMA is being misrepresented by some media in Armenia. One prominent outlet is already spreading news that the mission could be armed. This is incredibly sensitive and potentially dangerous for EUMA given the need to earn the trust of the adjacent Azerbaijani and Russian militaries.

 Though there will be police and gendarmes, especially from Germany and France, seconded to act as EUMA monitors, they will also not be armed and a transfer of command will see them act solely under the mission. The use of seconded police in unarmed EU CSDP missions is also not new. Hopefully the European Union will issue a statement clarifying this before any damage is done when not even a day has passed since EUMA started its operation.

Anyway, as I mentioned, a comprehensive article will be published in the coming days, but until then, see my blog posts on EUMA here.  

 

 

CONFLICT VOICES e-BOOKS

 

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Aliyev and Pashinyan meet with Blinken, clash on Munich Security Conference panel

Aliyev and Pashinyan meet with Blinken, clash on Munich Security Conference panel

by | Feb 19, 2023 | Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan meets with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in a meeting facilitated by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on 18 February 2023 © Official Photo

Unannounced until the last moment, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday facilitated and mediated a long overdue meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany. With Blinken were Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried and newly appointed Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations, Louis L. Bono.

Aliyev and Pashinyan had not met since Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi convened a trilateral summit in Sochi on 31 October. Attempts to facilitate another by European Council President Charles Michel on 7 December were aborted when Pashinyan reportedly attempted to change the negotiation format by insisting on the presence of French President Emmanuel Macron. Armenia claims that this was agreed upon after the 6 October meeting in Prague though there is so far nothing to support this, including in statements even from Paris.

Little is known about the substance of the meeting with Blinken, but it was a first for the U.S. to organise a meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders. Previously, the U.S. Secretary of State had only hosted the two foreign ministers, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, while National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan facilitated a meeting between Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan and Azerbaijani Presidential Advisor Hikmet Hajiyev on 27 September in Washington D.C..

All six officials – Aliyev, Pashinyan, Bayramov, Mirzoyan, Grigoryan, and Hajiyev – constitute the various negotiation formats led by the West. Their presence at yesterday’s meeting with Blinken therefore arguably highlighted the seriousness of the talks.

“We believe that Armenia and Azerbaijan have a genuinely historic opportunity to secure enduring peace after more than 30 years of conflict,” Blinken said in brief opening remarks covered by the media until talks continued behind closed doors. Prior to the meeting, Yerevan had also confirmed that it had sent its comments on the text of a bilateral peace agreement to Baku for consideration. Aliyev confirmed receipt in comments following the meeting that he also described as “constructive.”

“Three days ago, we received new responses to our proposals from Armenia. We are elaborating them now,” he told reporters. “At first glance, there is progress in Armenia’s position, but it is not sufficient.”

Indeed, the two sides do remain far apart on certain issues and this has only intensified during the standoff on the Lachin Corridor, a topic that was also discussed during the meeting with Blinken. As I’ve highlighted for well over a year now, the need for reciprocity on customs and passport controls on both the Lachin and Zangezur ‘corridors’ arguably remains the most pressing, something that was also alluded to by Aliyev. Basically, in a nutshell, if there are to be checks on the route from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan there should be similar for Lachin.

“I have also stated that it would be good if Armenia and Azerbaijan established checkpoints on the Armenian-Azerbaijan border in a bilateral manner,” Aliyev said. “We made this suggestion earlier and made it official today. Previously, this suggestion was communicated through unofficial channels. Armenia did not voice any position. They probably need some time to discuss it. But our initial impression is that both Europe and America view this proposal of ours as logical.

“[…] if we are talking about border delimitation, it is impossible to achieve without checkpoints. If we are talking about the opening of communications, of course, checkpoints should be established at both ends of the Zangezur corridor and at the border between Lachin district and Armenia. Today, at the meeting held with the participation of Secretary of State Blinken, I officially put forward this as a proposal. We will wait for a response from Armenia.”

What little else is known is only that Blinken appeared largely satisfied with the outcome of the meeting. “Pleased to hear that the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process is on track and negotiations between the two sides are continuing,” the Secretary of State tweeted.

“The course of the works around a peace treaty draft between Armenia and Azerbaijan was discussed at the meeting, as well as the unblocking of regional transport infrastructures and delimitation between the two countries in accordance with the agreement reached in Prague,” read the official Armenian statement. “Prime Minister Pashinyan reiterated Armenia’s commitment to achieve the signing of a peace treaty that would truly guarantee lasting peace and stability in the region.

At the same time, Nikol Pashinyan stressed the fact of the illegal blockade of Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan and the resulting humanitarian, environmental and energy crisis in Nagorno Karabakh. The continuity of the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan was highlighted.”

Unfortunately, and despite the historic nature of hosting the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders alongside Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, any hopes for a constructive public discussion as part of the Munich Security Conference quickly disappeared. Even though it was the first time that all three shared the same stage, the panel on “Moving Mountains: Building Security in the South Caucasus” soon descended into confrontation in no small part because of the moderator, Chair of the Munich Security Conference Christoph Heusgen.

For many, there were already concerns given the catastrophic nature of the last Aliyev and Pashinyan head-to-head in Munich in March 2020, just months before the devastating war over Karabakh that broke out months later. This was why, although some did decry the initial absence of Pashinyan on the panel, many others were privately relieved to see the panel’s announcement list only Aliyev and Garibashvili as representing the South Caucasus. This, incidentally, had been the case last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“Initially, the participation of the Armenian Prime Minister was not envisaged,” said Aliyev before the panel. “His name was not mentioned in the initial proposal given to me. He probably decided to attend last night. I think this is a good development because, finally, some cooperation among the three South Caucasus countries can be started.”

Aliyev also said discussions with Garibashvili on the creation of a “Tbilisi Format” between the sides might be brought up on the panel. “We are also welcoming that. This issue was discussed during my visit to Georgia. The Armenian side is somewhat hesitant about this. But I think it would be fair,” he said.

This idea was also recently supported by the European Union’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar. But if there had been the opportunity to facilitate and encourage a more amenable discussion on security concerns in the region and ways to resolve them, Huesgen instead seemingly goading the participants into confrontation, including by confronting Garibashvili on the situation of imprisoned former Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili. By no stretch of the imagination could this be considered on-topic.

Indeed, there is little point in dwelling more on the panel that could have been a historic opportunity to encourage a truly constructive and regional discussion at the level of the three leaders. Meanwhile, and although European Council President Charles Michel had met with both Aliyev and Pashinyan separately, there was also no trilateral meeting, leaving many still uncertain about the future of the hitherto encouraging Brussels format of negotiations. It can only be hoped that the meeting with Blinken was as constructive as is claimed. 

 

 

CONFLICT VOICES e-BOOKS

 

Conflict Voices – December 2010

Short essays on the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
Download in English | Russian

 

Conflict Voices – May 2011

Short essays on the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
Download in English | Russian

Armenian Foreign Minister Visits Turkiye After Earthquake, Rekindles Hopes for Normalisation

Armenian Foreign Minister Visits Turkiye After Earthquake, Rekindles Hopes for Normalisation

by | Feb 18, 2023 | Armenia, Armenia-Turkey, Caspian Post, Turkey

Armenian Foreign Minister A © Ararat Mirzoyan and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara, Wednesday, Feb 15, 2023 © Armenia MFA

The Caspian Post last week published my first piece on what can be hoped are real and genuine efforts to accelerate the latest efforts to normalise relations between Yerevan and Ankara following the recent and devastating earthquake in Turkey. During the last attempt to establish diplomatic relations in the late 2000s I covered that process extensively, including working with the BBC, Al Jazeera English, and The Wall Street Journal on various stories. Looks like I’ll now be doing the same throughout 2023.

The arrival in Ankara of Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan following last week’s devastating Kahramanmaras earthquake was sudden and unexpected. The tragedy on February 6 was the deadliest to hit Turkiye since 1923. At the time of writing, the 7.8-magnitude quake has claimed over 35,000 Turkish lives and an additional 6,000 victims in neighbouring Syria. Naturally, international offers of assistance and messages of condolence have flooded in from all over the world.

 

Including from Armenia.

 

Both Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Vahagn Khachaturyan sent their condolences, while humanitarian assistance and a search-and-rescue team were dispatched by Yerevan to assist in the post-disaster relief effort.  

 

“Saddened by the news of the devastating earthquake in Turkiye and Syria that resulted in the loss of so many lives,” Pashinyan tweeted. “Our deepest condolences to the families of the victims […]. Armenia is ready to provide assistance.”

 

[…]

 

Practical steps towards normalizing Armenia-Turkiye relations have been modest up until now. On February 2 last year, commercial flights resumed between Yerevan and Istanbul, while on January 6, 2023, Ankara lifted an effective ban on cargo flights. Eight months ago, Armenia and Turkiye announced that the land border would open for third-country nationals “at the earliest date possible,” but that had not actually happened yet. So, the use of the Margara-Alican border crossing to transport humanitarian assistance this week is at least of some relevance.

 

[…]

 

“The progress to be made in the process of normalization of Armenia’s relations with Turkiye and Azerbaijan will ensure peace and prosperity in our region,” Cavusoglu said in Ankara. “I specifically want to say from here that if these three countries take sincere steps, we will establish permanent peace in the South Caucasus. Peace in this region is extremely important for economic prosperity.”

The full article can be read on the Caspian Post here. Meanwhile, some, but not all, of my posts on Armenia-Turkey normalisation since the late 2000s can also be found here.