Russian peacekeepers on the Lachin corridor © Azertac

The 25 December rally in Stepanakert, the defacto capital of what remains of the Soviet-era Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), was large. An estimated 30-35,000 ethnic Armenian residents of the breakaway region gathered in the city’s Renaissance Square in an act of defiance in response to Azerbaijani “eco—activists” picketing the Lachin corridor.

Predictably, it wasn’t long before the ‘numbers game’ reared its head. 

Though many reports put the crowd at ‘thousands’ or ‘tens of thousands,” some Armenian media claimed 50,000 were in attendance while others even put it at as high as 60-70,000. Not unexpectedly, some Azerbaijani sources also claimed that only 17-20,000 took part despite an abundance of online crowd estimation tools to prove them otherwise. 

At the center of these claim and counter-claim disagreements are, of course, related to uncertainty as to how many people do actually live in Karabakh. Armenians put that figure at 120,000 while Azerbaijan claims that there are only 25,000, as if inflating the number or reducing it will determine the future of the region once a peace deal is negotiated.

In reality, neither are likely correct. It is unlikely to be as high as 120,000, but it is hard to imagine it could be anywhere as low as 25,000 too. The truth, however, is that we simply don’t know. And nor does it probably matter.

What does matter, however, is that Azerbaijanis claiming to be environmental activists have controlled the only link between Karabakh and Armenia for three weeks now in the new reality that emerged following the 2020 war. Armenians says this amounts to a blockade of the region situated within and surrounded by Azerbaijan proper while Baku claims that the road is open.

Further, some Armenian activists, especially online, claim Azerbaijan is attempting to ethnically cleanse the region of its population by preventing the import of food from Armenia, starving them out. Baku, however, says such goods may enter if there are checks on what is being transported, something they allege the defacto Karabakh authorities have refused.

And this remains at the heart of the ongoing dispute despite claims otherwise.

According to the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire statement, the transportation of people and goods between Armenia and Karabakh would be guaranteed on the Lachin corridor while unimpeded access between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan would be facilitated through Armenia. However, Yerevan is reluctant to have the latter with no border or customs checks.

Of course, the “new transport communications” through Armenia’s Siunik region to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave haven’t even been constructed yet, but Baku therefore argues that if this is Yerevan’s position then there should be similar checks on the Lachin corridor . This continues to be one of the main stumbling blocks in attempts to normalise relations.

It has also taken on geopolitical significance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is, however, transporting critically ill patients from Karabakh to Armenia for treatment and bringing back medical supplies on their return. ICRC has already transported some 10 tons of medicine, medical supplies, and infant food from Armenia, for example, that should last 10 days, presumably until another occurs.

Meanwhile, convoys from the Russian peacekeeping mission travel through the Azerbaijani protestors on a daily basis, though it is unknown what they are carrying. Moreover, confusing the issue of who is blocking what, when a group of motorists from Yerevan attempted to travel into Karabakh a week ago, failure to negotiate passage with the Russians saw them turn back. 

This is possibly why the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), in a recent ruling, could not ascertain to what extent the blockage on the Lachin Corridor was being orchestrated by Azerbaijan. Instead, it simply reminded Baku of its obligation to allow the free movement of humanitarian assistance and those Karabakh residents stranded in Armenia.

That last part, however, has not happened, though it remains unclear why.

Muddying waters further, and definitely obfuscating matters, of course, is yet another fully-fledged information war, though ironically not from official circles this time. It has also been made worse by the absence of in-depth reporting on the situation even in the Armenian media, creating additional problems and creating a space for sensationalist narratives. 

A few social media accounts, for example, spread photographs of empty shelves in supermarkets and closed vegetable and fruit stands. There was no bread, others claimed, and no eggs, with the population now facing imminent starvation. However, this is not the reality that even defacto Karabakh State Minister Ruben Vardanyan presents to the world.

“We will not starve, because there’s enough food,” Vardanyan told Reuters on 24 December. “But some products we cannot get on our internal market.”

Indeed, albeit aside from medical supplies, the problem so far seems more one of fuel and certain imported goods, he added. Moreover, he continued, Karabakh is instead preparing itself for a long winter under the condition of an effective blockade, again indicating that any panic spread and amplified on social media isn’t yet experienced by the local population.

The Russian-Armenian Vardanyan has even paid tribute to the spirit and resilience of the Karabakh Armenians, many of whom engage in agriculture, including using greenhouses, as well as animal husbandry. And on 24 December, in a rare example of much-needed objective reporting, Aliq Media also published an account by a local journalist on the ground. 

“The mood is normal and people are trying to take the situation calmly. I don’t know how to express it, maybe I could even say it’s a little indifferent, people are so calm,” Srbuhi Vanyan is quoted as saying. “There is still no problem with bread, cereals, pulses. We still have what is produced locally – dairy products, meat, etc.”

Indeed, one young woman in Stepanakert has even been updating her followers on a semi-regular basis as to what she is cooking and consuming at home. She also shows what she is able to find for purchase in the shops and markets. In the past week alone this has included chicken, rice, eggs, potatoes, bread, and onions, as well as some greens and fruit.

There is also a steady stream of official price monitoring reports made publicly available as part of the operations centre Vardanyan heads. Those reports, incidentally, do indicate that certain goods are largely unavailable or intermittent in terms of supply and that there has especially been a problem with certain vegetables, some of which are imported.

On 20 December, it was also reported that farmers still have supplies of diesel to continue the late sowing of crops. It should also be mentioned that  Karabakh banned the export of wheat and barley to Armenia in July 2022. “We don’t have a flour and wheat problem,” Stepanakert Mayor David Sargsyan said on 30 December. “The bread factories are working as normal.”

Vardanyan also met last week with the owners of restaurants and cafes in Stepanakert to discuss keeping their businesses open, though there is now a maximum size of 15 people for groups dining out. This can reach 35 people for post-function events such as funerals. Social media also shows that many pizzerias, pâtisseries, and other catering firms still operate.

One restaurant, for example, posted on its Facebook page only today that it will reopen tomorrow after it closed for the New Year. Another is also now advertising a special ‘Mafia’ game night, also known as ‘Werewolf,’ to be held every Wednesday starting this week. As it too is a restaurant-cafe, this implies those going will also consume items from its menu.  

This possibly indicates that the authorities are reserving certain goods for key commercial enterprises, including cafes and restaurants, as well as bakeries. Wine, of course, is not an issue in a region that produces its own and the same is true for vodka. Karabakh’s Public TV even aired a report on a fairly new albeit small winery in one village just two days ago.

Tea and coffee also appear to be available, though cigarettes are reportedly close to disappearing completely. 

None of which, of course, is to diminish the potential severity of the situation in Karabakh if it continues. Certainly, at some point there will be an even greater scarcity of goods that cannot be produced locally. This would includes hygiene and sanitation products, cosmetics, commercially produced snacks, and specialized ingredients for Stepanakert’s eateries. 

Though many are not essential items, they would affect the ability of some businesses to continue. For example, although still visible in video reports from Karabakh’s Public TV and even in social media posts by residents, carbonated drinks, chocolates, coffee, potato crisps, and other goods not produced locally will eventually disappear when existing stocks run out.

This will obviously hit Karabakh’s already shaky economy, something Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reports is already starting to happen.

“Small shops have not opened as they have no products, but the big ones still have it to some extent,” RFE/RL quoted one resident as saying earlier today.” The big stores are open and they have stored goods. They take them out regularly and they give little by little. People have also created reserves so that they can last a long time.”

Physical currency is also a problem, though likely because Karabakh uses the Armenian dram so supply is now limited. It also no doubt prevents some residents imperiling local banks by withdrawing their savings. Instead, residents have been requested to mainly use plastic cards.

Regardless, it still remains uncertain when the standoff on the Lachin corridor will be resolved, but at least Karabakh doesn’t appear to be facing starvation – and nor are the defacto authorities claiming that it will. Instead, Vardanyan’s team have been minimising major disruption to ensure that life can continue as close to normality as is practically possible.

That’s not to say things are normal, however. There is clearly rationing occurring and the gradual intermittent resupply of shops and catering businesses occurring while other goods, as mentioned above, will clearly run out and some probably have already.

Moreover, perhaps the main issue of concern with the situation on the Lachin corridor is that it hardly contributes to an environment conducive to peace or eventual reconciliation between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis. It should also be remembered that there are still hundreds of Karabakh Armenians stranded in Yerevan and Goris. Among them are children.

Indeed, on 30 December, UNICEF Armenia echoed the calls of the UN Secretary General’s spokesperson to ‘ensure freedom and security of movement’ so that ‘international obligations to protect children are met.’ There are also reportedly problems emerging for those residents with specific nutritional needs, especially in kindergartens and nursing homes.

For everyone’s sake, a resolution of the standoff on the Lachin corridor is therefore necessary.

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Update 3 January 2023: Ruben Vardanyan today announced that some goods stored in Karabakh’s food reserves will be distributed to shops. This gradual and limited resupply sounds logical given that there is so far no official rationing introduced and it also prevents panic buying.