Protest Demonstration, 1 March, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2008

After over a month of harsh and inflammatory rhetoric directed against the Armenian Apostolic Church, and especially its head, Catholicos Karekin II, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan late last month declared a ceasefire in the escalating war of words. The truce ostensibly took effect on at the very beginning of this month and will last until the end of the week when it will be assessed.

Pashinyan’s critics, however, did not take the initiative seriously. With dozens already arrested and facing deprivation of their assets and positions, they believe the damage has already been done. Opposition media also noted that the armistice was only offered after Pashinyan had one of his posts, laced with insults and even obscenities, removed by Facebook for violating community standards.

 

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For those looking in from outside, recent developments have been bewildering. In reality, there has hardly been a culture of civilised political discussion in recent history. The situation, however, has certainly worsened under Pashinyan though that is not to solely single out the government here. The opposition is as much to blame, especially following Armenia’s defeat by Azerbaijan in the 2020 war.

 

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The EU faces a test. If it is serious about supporting democratic development in Armenia, it must also stress the need for genuine political dialogue, civil discourse, and a truly pluralistic but professional media. It must also resist the urge to pick favourites when convenient. Pashinyan called for an end to the acrimonious tit-for-tat bickering. In no uncertain terms, the EU should too.

The full piece is available here.

Opposition Protest, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2007

Bagrat Galstanyan, the hardline cleric who led street protests against the start of border demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and called for the resignation or impeachment of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has been placed in pre-trial detention for two months. More than a dozen others have also been detained, with that number expected to rise. They are accused of plotting a coup ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections, following the publication by pro-Pashinyan media of an alleged seven-page document detailing the plan.

Audio recordings, allegedly featuring Bagrat Galstanyan, describe actions ranging from civil disobedience to acts of terrorism. While MPs from the ruling Civil Contract party claim Galstanyan has admitted the voice is his, the controversial cleric denies any such confirmation. The National Security Service (NSS) has also released photographs of alleged weapons caches. However, opposition figures have noted that many of the seized items are legally registered hunting rifles, and the ammunition shown includes spent shotgun shells.

 

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Additional doubts and questions have also surfaced. In the document published online by a pro-Pashinyan outlet, the opening sentence was crudely redacted using a simple strip of white paper. However, photographs released by the National Security Service (NSS) reveal that the concealed text dates the alleged coup between late June and late September of last year. This contradicts earlier claims by government officials and pro-government media, who had presented the plot as being planned for this year.

 

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As has been clear for some time, the 2026 elections are likely to be existential in nature. At stake is not just the future of all those involved but also the country’s geopolitical orientation and relationship with its neighbours, particularly Azerbaijan and Turkiye. It is likely that more arrests will follow while the political temperature rises closer to boiling point. What little social cohesion remains in the country will be tested to the limit. And with neither the government nor the opposition commanding large support, many will be left in-between.

The full piece is available here.

Catholicos Karekin II, Easter Service, Etchmiadzin, Armenia © Onnik James Krkorian 2016

Armenia finds itself in deepening discord between its political and religious elites. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s unprecedented public attacks on Catholicos Karekin II, head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, mark further escalation in a personal feud waged since the 2018 Velvet Revolution. It has worsened each year since, and not least since Karekin II approved the participation of his own clergy to join protests against Pashinyan in 2022 and for one to lead them in 2024.

The prime minister accused the Catholicos of violating his vow of celibacy and fathering a child, allegations that surfaced in the media over a decade ago but have now resurfaced with much sharper rhetoric. Pashinyan’s wife, Anna Hakobyan, even compared clergy to pedophiles, a provocative charge that many believe is intended to silence dissent ahead of a possible peace agreement with Azerbaijan and parliamentary elections set for next year.

 

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Though the government has alleged strong links between Etchmiadzin and Moscow in the past, the squabble ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections has taken on a more distinct and obvious geopolitical tone and should ring alarm bells. Yerevan had already accused Moscow of waging a hybrid war against it. If that was to escalate, then an already volatile situation could prove explosive, while Pashinyan instead eyes normalising ties with Azerbaijan and Turkiye as a potential vote winner.

 

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There is still only a little less than a full year until election day. Meanwhile, another major conflict, this time between Iran and Israel, has emerged on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, adding even more geopolitical uncertainty into the mix. The coming year was, anyway unpredictable. It is even more so now.

The full piece is available here.