Official Photo

Amid growing tensions in the Armenian National Assembly, Armenia’s political climate continues to intensify ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections. The opposition is ramping up efforts to discredit Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, this time criticizing his policy of normalizing relations with neighboring Türkiye. The situation has been further inflamed by an incident in which an opposition blogger was reportedly assaulted by pro-Pashinyan members of a Yerevan district council. Last week, Pashinyan also lost his temper against opposition lawmakers during a parliamentary session, which critics interpreted as a threat to arrest opposition members of parliament who had accused members of his party of corruption. Despite likely being an impulsive and poorly judged overreaction, the episode highlights the mounting pressure on the embattled prime minister as the elections draw nearer.

Last week, Armenia’s Ministry of Justice drafted legislation that would force the removal of slanderous content. This means the government would effectively “curb press freedom” if the media, especially pro-opposition, does not self-regulate itself. A journalist in Armenia’s southernmost Siunik region looks set to be prosecuted for her reporting on anti-Pashinyan protests that took place four years ago. There are growing concerns that democratic progress is now in decline in Armenia as Pashinyan sets his sights on his political rivals and other critical voices in the country. 

 

[…]

 

According to the latest Marketing Professional Group (MPG)/Gallup International survey conducted between April 29 and May 2, Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party’s electoral chances remain low. As a previous poll demonstrated in January, only 11 to 11.5 percent of respondents said they would re-elect the current government. A combined 20 percent of respondents, however, would vote for others representing the four main parties that made up the previous governments under the Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan administrations consecutively from 1998–2018. Just over 28 percent of respondents said they were undecided, intended to spoil their ballots, or were against all. Though such intentions could change over the coming year, there is nonetheless plenty for Pashinyan to worry about following recent defeats in local elections in Gyumri, where a pro-Russia candidate became mayor and pro-EU parties failed to pass the threshold for representation.

 

[…]

 

“It is possible to bring people to the streets but it is very difficult to keep them there … with unrealistic statements, innuendos, and patriotic appeals instead of political programs,” one political scientist told local media earlier this month, potentially raising the stakes even higher. Senior Armenian officials, including National Assembly Speaker Simonyan and Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan, also warn that Russia has been engaged in a “hybrid war” in Armenia since 2018 when Pashinyan came to power. Moscow denies the accusation, but the information sphere will certainly influence the outcome, whether from domestic or external sources. There is a large overlap between both, and the issues are genuinely organic. Regardless, the stakes remain high for the country’s future post-2026, especially if there is no progress on signing a peace deal with Azerbaijan or if a nationalist political force gains more influence. Even if Pashinyan’s party were to win the most votes in next year’s elections compared to individual rivals, without a majority of parliamentary deputies in the National Assembly, it could usher in a period of instability in the future.

The full piece is available here.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan finds himself facing a turbulent political landscape following snap local elections in the municipalities of Gyumri and Parakar late last month. Despite municipal votes often being dismissed as minor, the outcome of the March 30 elections carries national weight. In both Gyumri and Parakar, Pashinyan’s ruling political party, Civil Contract, failed to secure a majority of the votes. The elections were widely considered a referendum on Pashinyan’s premiership. Pashinyan’s approval ratings hover around 11 percent, according to a survey published in January of this year. This, combined with the election results in Gyumri and Parakar, means that Pashinyan’s political survivability may be in question.

In Gyumri, Armenia’s second-largest city and home to the Russian 102nd military base, Pashinyan’s approval ratings are particularly symbolic given that he embarked on a pivotal march to unseat his predecessor, walking 117 kilometers (72 miles) from Gyumri to Yerevan in 2018, almost seven years ago to the day. Despite most Armenians expecting Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party to outright win the elections, there was the possibility that another party could strike a deal for it to still govern.

 

[…]

 

In September 2023, Civil Contract had also failed to win an outright majority in the Yerevan municipal elections, attracting just 33 percent of the vote. Pashinyan’s candidate, Tigran Avinyan, had to instead rely on an extra-parliamentary Public Voice led by a former policeman and controversial video blogger, currently detained in the United States, to retain power. In Gyumri last month, however, there was no political force to make a deal. Even a new pro-European Union extra-parliamentary force believed close to Pashinyan failed to pass the six percent threshold.

 

[…]

 

For now, Pashinyan must balance westward aspirations with the ever-present shadow of Russia and an increasingly assertive opposition at home. If he can offer voters a compelling vision of a “Real Armenia”—one that overcomes military defeat, economic stagnation, and regional isolation—he might still chart a path to re-election. The 2018 Velvet Revolution, however, feels distant for most Armenians now, as demonstrated in Gyumri. The loss of Karabakh and the attempted control of power in the regions of Armenia define his tenure today.

The full piece is available here.