Twitter Diplomacy: Can new media break the Armenia-Azerbaijan information blockade?

Twitter Diplomacy: Can new media break the Armenia-Azerbaijan information blockade?

With a peaceful resolution to the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh as elusive as ever, Armenians and Azerbaijanis are unable to visit each other’s country or communicate through traditional means such as telephone or mail. However, as the local media usually self-censors or resorts to propaganda when it comes to relations between the two countries, can new and social media step in to fill the gap to break the information blockade?

A week before video blogging youth activists Adnan Hajizade and Emin Milli were detained in Baku, Azerbaijan, an Armenian sitting hundreds of kilometers away in Yerevan, Armenia, posted a YouTube video on his Facebook page. The video, by Hajizade, introduced the now vacant Armenian Church in the Azerbaijan capital to subscribers to the youth activist’s online video channel. The message was simple. It was a virtual hand of friendship extended across a closed border and a ceasefire line still in place for over 15 years since the 1994 ceasefire.

For many Armenians with access to Facebook, this was the first time that they were presented with an alternative image of the ‘enemy,’ and one very different than that usually portrayed in the local media. For one Armenian opposition youth activist, however, such stereotypes were not easily changed. She left a comment saying that while Hajizade seemed to be tolerant and progressive beyond all expectations, she doubted that there were others like him in Azerbaijan. However, nothing could have been further from the truth.

Later, when Hajizade and Milli were detained for their other activities, more Armenians discovered a whole network of young activists in Azerbaijan who leapt to Hajizade and Milli’s defense on the popular social networking site. Through the skillful and exemplary use of Facebook, Twitter and blogs, it wasn’t long before the international media caught up and covered the case while activists in Armenia looked on with envy. A week earlier, a young opposition activist had been detained in Yerevan, but few covered the case at all.

Even so, progressive youth in Azerbaijan were also able to see through Facebook that some Armenians also supported the campaign for Hajizade and Milli’s release. More importantly, perhaps, they could see that they did so not for propaganda purposes in order to paint Azerbaijan in a bad light, but simply out of genuine concern. Such a development was in sharp contrast to the media in both Armenia and Azerbaijan where many journalists have effectively become ‘combatants’ in an information war of attrition.

“[A] negative context [is set] in the public consciousness, which hinders dialogue and mutual understanding,” said a report on Armenian-Azerbaijani media bias by the Caucasus Resource Research Center (CRRC) for the Eurasia Partnership Foundation (EPF) last year. “Without more accurate and unbiased information […] free of negative rhetoric and stereotypes, Armenians and Azerbaijanis will continue to see themselves as enemies without any common ground.”

On Facebook, blogs and Twitter, however, perceptions were changing, or at least to some extent. Moreover, for those youth in both countries who were already in contact with each other, albeit in secret, they now felt empowered and confident enough to do so openly. Others also joined their ranks.

“These new tools can be used to foment violence or to foster peace,” wrote Global Voices Online Executive Director Ivan Sigal in a paper, Digital media in conflict-prone societies, for the Center for International Media Assistance (CIMA) early last year. “[However] it is possible to build communication systems that encourage dialogue and nonviolent political solutions,” the former researcher on citizen media at the US Institute of Peace added.

Therefore, it perhaps came as no surprise when last year some civil society groups which regularly convening meetings between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in third countries, started to take notice of what was happening online. This author, for example, was approached by two such organizations for contacts given their own largely unsuccessful efforts to find suitable participants from Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, however, while the open nature of the Internet was vital in identifying new participants, their own activities remained as closed as ever.

Another recent report, Obstacles and opportunities for civil society development in the South Caucasus, also published by CRRC, highlighted the persistence of strong pre-transition social networks in the sector. “NGOs are “autocratic”, “top-down” and “donor-driven”, [and] maintain an “existence more closely related to the salaries of employees than the potential benefits for the target group”,” opined social media expert Dan McQuillan on his blog just days before a Civil Society Forum held in Bratislava, Slovakia, last year.

Moreover, an Armenian organizer of one civil society initiative to bring Armenians, Azerbaijanis and Georgians together doubted that Hajizade and Milli were even genuinely arrested. An inherent lack of trust in the other side lead her to initially suspect that the new generation of activists in Azerbaijan were merely an ‘invention’ of their president to deceive the Council of Europe. Only after making contact with such people via my Facebook page before finally meeting them in Telavi, Georgia, was she convinced enough to change her mind.

But, had there been either the will or an understanding of the potential of using new media tools effectively, such a revelation could have occurred long before. And even then, two diplomatic sources speaking to Transitions Online not only considered that civil society has failed to achieve anything by way of a breakthrough in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, but also risks not spreading their networks wide enough. Indeed, many working in the area of promoting the use of new online tools in conflict resolution and transformation remain unimpressed.

“A significant amount of civil society work within the South Caucasus reinforces status quo policies where governments profit from war and exacerbate cultural differences to their advantage,” says Micael Bogar, Projects Manager at the American University Center for Social Media. “Surprisingly, a notable portion of the non-profit sector plays a role in this corrupt practice. New media tools, with their powerful and cheap ability to communicate across borders, threaten [their] wasteful practices.”

As a result, the former Peace Corps Volunteer in the South Caucasus says, many civil society organizations remain reluctant to fully investigate their potential. However, while singling out the use of new and social media to campaign for Hajizade and Milli as well as an American project to bring Armenian and Azerbaijani teenagers together online as success stories, Bogar says another issue is access. Although Georgia and Azerbaijan have cheaper and faster Internet compared to Armenia, penetration and connection speeds remain low throughout the region.

“While there is an elite element within civil society with access, but no interest, there is an even larger pool of citizens within the South Caucasus who may have the desire to work towards peace but lack any real long term ability to use these tools towards that end,” she says.

Indeed, concluded the CRRC report, the Millennium Challenges Account (MCA), a U.S. government international assistance program, should consider investing in the creation of a regional high-speed Internet backbone as well as widespread use of Web 2.0 and mobile Internet technologies. Yet, even without that, existing tools and infrastructure offer a way to break the information blockade. If willing, journalists in both Armenia and Azerbaijan could use Skype or other Internet chat programs, for example, to communicate directly with each other.

IREX, for example, has identified the inability of journalists to check facts as a major obstacle to the development of the media in Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is particularly true in the case of coverage of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations where inaccurate information is often as common as propaganda.

For civil society, such tools also offer participants of confidence building initiatives to remain in touch long after short encounters held in countries such as Georgia end. As it is, the participants of such programs from Armenia and Azerbaijan do not make contact before physically meeting, and most do not remain in contact after they do. Yet, the viral nature of the Internet as well as the social networking aspect of blogs and sites such as Facebook could set examples of Armenians and Azerbaijanis openly being in normal contact with each other.

Then, when alternative voices in the media and society can be heard through alternative methods of delivering information online, perhaps the traditional mainstream media in Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as civil society in general, might finally have no choice but to change their existing approach of spreading partisan propaganda and perpetuating negative stereotypes to slowly prepare the grounds for genuine dialogue and an exchange of reliable, factual information.

 

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Armenia, Turkey Sign Historic Protocols… Eventually

Armenia, Turkey Sign Historic Protocols… Eventually

Armenia-Turkey border gates, Margara, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

Under the watchful eyes of the United States and Russia, Armenia and Turkey have finally signed two protocols which many hope will see the normalization of relations between the two neighbouring countries. Fixing again for Al Jazeera English and the BBC, today’s historic development meant another visit to Margara, an Armenian village on the border with Turkey and one of two border crossing points closed by Ankara in 1993 in support of Azerbaijan during the conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh.

The visit was even more interesting given that permission to pass the border gates had been given by Armenia’s National Security Service (NSS). Last time myself and a BBC film crew were detained by Russian border guards.

The border gates might not look much, but for the international community, an eventual opening when the protocols are ratified by both  parliaments offers new hope in an otherwise volatile and unstable region. Many analysts believe the urgency of Armenia and Turkey establishing diplomatic relations became even more important after last year’s war between Georgia and Russia. However, they also point out, it is not a done deal. Signing the protocols is one thing, but ratification is quite another, and especially in Turkey where domestic concerns and hopes to link the protocols to negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan to end the Karabakh conflict persist.

Even today’s signing ceremony was not without its problems with Armenia objecting to the wording of the statement from Turkey. There will likely be more such problems as debate over the protocols intensify leading up to their eventual ratification. Societies in both countries remain split with the lack of informed discussion leading to what local analysts such as American-Armenian Richard Giragossian refer to as disinformation. It is also unclear to what extent Armenia would benefit from an open border in the short-term considering Russian control or ownership of key areas of the local economy.  Nevertheless, analysts hope that the protocols will contribute to long-term peace, stability and economic development in the region.

But, and perhaps as indication of many of the obstacles which still need to be overcome before ratification, the signing of the protocols took place hours later than scheduled. Reports say that Armenia objected to the wording of a statement from the Turkish side calling for the withdrawal of troops from those occupied regions around Nagorno Karabakh. Other reports also indicate that Turkey objected to reference to the 1915 massacre and deportation of as many as 1.5 million Armenians living in the Ottoman Empire as genocide.

When the protocols were eventually signed, thanks to last minute mediation by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, neither side issued any statement at all. Twitter kept many informed throughout what turned out to be a very tense and an almost uncertain and unpredictable day.

Armenia-Turkey border gates, Margara, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

Of course, that’s not to say that there isn’t opposition in Armenia. Although few can say how many Armenians are for or against the protocols, a rally held yesterday by  two nationalist parties represented in parliament, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) and Heritage, along with eight others, was relatively poorly attended. AFP estimated the number of participants at 10,000 while the German media put it at around 15,000. By the time the demonstrators reached the Genocide memorial in Yerevan, the number of those marching had shrunk to about 5,000 according to the BBC.

The rally followed an even smaller sit-in strike outside government buildings on Yerevan’s Republic Square. Nevertheless, said one protester, the number of those opposed might now snowball. It’s hard to say whether that will be the case, so for now all eyes are on Turkey and its traditional ally in the region, Azerbaijan.

Round the clock protest ahead of possible Armenia-Turkey breakthrough

Round the clock protest ahead of possible Armenia-Turkey breakthrough

ARF-D protest, Republic Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

While most were enjoying a sunny afternoon in the Armenian capital, a few dozen members of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation – Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) continued their round the clock hunger strike outside the main government building and the adjacent Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The nationalist party is staging the action to protest what many consider to be the likely signing of two protocols establishing diplomatic relations and opening up the country’s border closed by Turkey in 1993 as Armenia and Azerbaijan waged war over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh. Armenian forces currently control about 14 percent of Azerbaijan.

Well, it has to be said, as some point out, the action is not exactly a hunger strike, but more like some kind of 48-hour fast with 24 party members refraining from eating until they are replaced two days later. Immediate recognition of the Armenian Genocide and territorial claims on Turkey might be central to the party’s ideology, but the protest is remarkably calm and restrained. The ARF-D resigned from the government coalition in April, but paradoxically, critics say, the party has not called for the resignation of the Armenian president, Serge Sargsyan, over the matter even though many expect the protocols will be signed on 10 October.

Sargsyan is currently on a fasttrack tour of the large Diaspora in order to consult with its various leaders and organizations about the imminent agreement. Small and sometimes violent protests have already greeted him in Paris and New York. The main disagreement, aside from recognizing the Turkish border and abandoning claims on what is now Eastern Turkey, lies with the establishment of a historical commission which outside observers believe could resolve long standing differences over a tragic history. As many as 1.5 million Armenians were massacred and deported in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire and most historians consider this as Genocide. Turkey denies the claims.

Indeed, the protestors remain adamant that most Armenians are behind them in opposing the deal and are preparing for a rally to be held on 9 October. Approximately 700 people have signed their petition today, protestors add, although they can’t give precise figures for the total number collected so far. “It’s about 60 or 70,000,” says one, although few expect Friday’s rally to attract anywhere close to that number, even from a city of 1.5 million and a country a little over twice that size. An earlier meeting last month attracted just 500 people, and although Friday’s rally will likely be significantly larger, for every passerby who put pen to paper today, more didn’t.

Nevertheless, unlike even the government let alone the extra-parliamentary opposition, the ARF-D are at least attempting to engage the population. Posters have sprung up on walls downtown and leaflets detailing the party’s position on the protocols have been printed and are being distributed. However, local analysts such as Armenian-American Richard Giragossian consider that domestic opposition to the protocols will remain slight. Armenia is already suffering more than its neighbours as a result of the current global economic crisis and the main opposition parties can hardly hope to exploit inherent fears among the population given their own conciliatory approach when in power.

For Armenia, the benefits of a normalization with Turkey are clear. Open borders and normal relations are essential and stand as prerequisites to development and stability. An agreement with Turkey would offer Armenia an immediate end to the country’s dependence on Georgia and would do much to lessen over-dependence on Russia by bringing Armenia closer to the West, while also bringing Europe closer to Armenia.
 
And in a strategic sense, the normalization with Turkey is an imperative for overcoming the two strategic threats now facing Armenia — isolation and insignificance. Of course, this process necessitates a recognition of the past, based on a mutual accommodation of the historical legacy of genocide, but also on a shared perspective of looking to the future.
 
If it succeeds, this agreement must be seen in the proper perspective. […] The issue of normalizing relations with Armenia also stands a key test of Turkey’s strategic future.
 
[…]
 
A third opportunity […] stems from the broader impact of normalizing relations with Turkey as an important mechanism to deepen democracy and bolster reform in Armenia, also offering a new path toward region reintegration and broader development once borders are opened and trade restored.

Another ethnic Armenian regional analyst, Kevork Oskanian, agrees.

The protocols published by the Armenian, Turkish and Swiss foreign ministries on 31 August have provoked an outcry among both Armenian and Turkish nationalists.  […] On both extremes, the reactions were completely predictable in terms of their enduring, fossilised paranoia.
 
[…]
 
[…] Focusing on the immediate risks taken by both actors, however, provides us with only part of the picture: these pitfalls are substantial, but so are the potential benefits. On other levels, and in other issue-areas, both Turkey and Armenia believe they stand to gain significantly in the case of a successful rapprochement. […] Armenia, on the other hand, is growing increasingly concerned at the sight of increasingly disadvantageous economic growth differentials; of the three states, Armenia’s economy has been hit the hardest by the global economic crisis. Yerevan’s more determined push for better relations with Turkey is, to a significant extent, predicated on an understanding that, left isolated, Armenia’s economy will likely continue to underperform its neighbours’ (as it has in recent years, particularly in relation to Azerbaijan), with significant strategic implications in the long term.
 
[…] With Karabakh and Armenia-Turkey interwoven with many of these issues, anyone seen as threatening such a hard-won grand bargain would soon find his options exhausted.
Yet, even so, few can actually say what most Armenians think about the protocols. The media remains as polarized as it ever was and civil society is either relatively quiet on the matter or has formed a position based on partisan political grounds. True, on a recent visit to Armenia’s second largest city of Gyumri with Al Jazeera ‘s Matthew Collin, many older residents of Armenia’s second largest city were against an open border even if they are expected to be its main beneficiaries. “If it happens,“ said one, “all our girls will go and work as prostitutes in Turkey.“
It probably didn’t even occur to them that it is only the land border that is closed and that there are already regular flights between Armenia and Turkey let alone access via Georgia. In contrast, young students approached said they were in favour of establishing friendly relations with their neighbour. Even so, it is likely that most Armenians are confused and even those against the protocols because they don’t trust a new president elected in a bitterly disputed and flawed vote. The authorities have also not engaged the population sufficiently enough.
“Armenia has been woefully bad at explaining what the deal is about; there has been no real groundwork or preparation, and the lack of information has bred disinformation,” says Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Centre for National and International Studies.
Instead, many observers suspect, real opposition to prevent any potential breakthrough will come not in Armenia or even its large Diaspora, but rather in Azerbaijan and Turkey. Friday’s rally by the ARF-D will indicate whether they are right. For now, however, cautious optimism seems to be the prevailing mood in the international community with the U.S., France, Germany and others, including some influential groups in the Diaspora, hailing the move in the hope that a process ushering in a new period of peace, stability and prosperity can finally come to the South Caucasus.
 
In the meantime, as I’ll be fixing for Al Jazeera English, the BBC and The Wall Street Journal over the next two weeks, follow me on Twitter at @onewmphoto for updates and new developments.

ARF-D protest, Republic Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

Armenian Political Groups Fume, But Little Visible Opposition to Turkey Protocols

Armenian Political Groups Fume, But Little Visible Opposition to Turkey Protocols

Yesterday’s Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) rally, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

As the international community applauds the presidents of Armenia and Turkey for making unprecedented progress in attempts to normalize relations, others are not so ecstatic. Indeed, while many consider the establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening of borders between the two estranged neighbours as crucial in establishing peace and stability in the region, opposition to such a development was always going to materialize from some political forces within Armenia as well as its other foe, Turkish ally Azerbaijan.

But, if yesterday’s rally to mark the declaration of independence in the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh staged by the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) was anything to go by, such fears might be overblown in Armenia, at least. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war over Karabakh in the early 90s leaving around 30,000 dead, a million diplaced from their former homes, and Armenian forces in control of over 14 percent of Azerbaijani territory.

It came as no surprise, therefore, to discover that the anniversary event would also be used not only to protest the recently announced protocols which could end a century-old rift, but also to voice its displeasure with what many consider might be a parallel process to finally resolve the dispute over Karabakh. Despite having both issues central its ideology, however, the nationalist party failed to attract more than 500 people.

Having resigned from the coalition government in April specifically because of reported progress in attempts to mend ties between Armenia and Turkey, the party now lacks the administrative resources necessary to mobilize people onto the streets.  Last year, for example, the same event which preceded the arrival of Turkish president Abdullah Gul in Yerevan by just a few weeks, the ARF-D managed to attract a few thousand. 

Many, however, allege that most of those in attendance were schoolchildren bused in to the event by their teachers. At that time, the ARF-D hwas responsible for the Ministry of Education. 

Billed to last two hours, the rally ended half an hour with most of those attending talking among themselves rather than listen to speeches accusing the government of “selling out” historical demands under the pressure of the international community. Calling once more for the resignation of the Armenian foreign minister, Eduard Nalbandian, they once again stopped short of demanding that the president, Serge Sargsyan, step down.

“As long as there is a possibility of preventing the signing of a final agreement […], such a demand can not be logical,” RFE/RL quoted head of the party’s governing body as saying.

“No matter how much our and American officials insist that the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations is going on without preconditions, Turkey has not abandoned them after all,” said Vahan Hovannisian, a member of the nationalist party’s ruling Bureau. “Furthermore, it has skillfully managed to build the whole negotiating package around its preconditions.”

 

[…]

 

Rustamian added that Dashnaktsutyun, which pulled out of Armenia’s coalition government in April, will push for Sarkisian’s resignation if he signs up to the existing basic principles of Karabakh peace drafted by the U.S., Russian and French mediators. The latter hope that Sarkisian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, will finalize a framework peace deal when they meet again next month.

Whatever the politicians might say, however, noody is sure of how society will eventually consider the proposed protocol. During photographic work conducted for The National newspaper in June, for example, one genocide survivor was most adamant that ties should not be mended until Turkey owns up to its past. In villages such as Ashnak in the country’s Aragatsotn region, similar views could also be heard, but while fixing for the BBC in other parts of the country, and especially on the border with Turkey itself, the tone was more conciliatory.

“The prospect of a border opening is not only a personal issue. It will help everyone. We want to become friends with the Turkish people – they are our neighbours,” [Gharnik Kharibyan] says.

 

[…]

 

[…] some Margara residents, like Sonik Ghazaryan, still have concerns – even though now she is prepared to move on.

 

“We are very sensitive about this issue because we remember the stories [about the killings] our ancestors told us,” she said.

 

“But we are ready for change. I think it is important that Armenia and Turkey become friends again.”

Even so, certain forces within Armenia continue to criticize any possible rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey. Opposition supporters argue that it betrays the country’s interests while nationalists panic in the understanding that recognition of the border would put end to territorial claims on its Western neighbour once and for all. Both also claim that the protocols will have negative implications for resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, something which. Independent analysts, and as well as one western diplomat talking to me, refute.

Meanwhile, the extra-parliamentary opposition led by Levon Ter-Petrossian welcomes moves to normalize relations between Armenia and Turkey, but opposes the establishment of a historical commission to look into the events of 1915 arguing that it “calls into question the reality of the Armenian genocide.” Ironically, one of their main figures, former Foreign Minister Alexander Arzumanian, was accused of doing the same in 1991 when he was part of the now defunct Turkish Armenian Reconciliation Commission (TARC).

Nevertheless, Ter-Petrossian’s Armenian National Congress (ANC) is believed to be less negative towards developments as some initially believed, leading to news of some divisions within.

The country’s largest opposition force, the Armenian National Congress (HAK), has responded more positively to the latest developments in the more than yearlong Turkish-Armenian negotiations. In a statement issued on Tuesday, the HAK said the disclosed draft protocols mark “substantial progress” towards Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. It at the same time denounced the planned creation of a Turkish-Armenian body tasked with examining the World War One-era massacres.

 :

The HAK’s largely positive official reaction to the deal, which apparently reflects the views of its top leader Levon Ter-Petrosian, contrasted with sharp criticism of the government voiced by some top representatives of the alliance uniting about two dozen opposition groups. One of them, the Social Democratic Hnchakian Party, on Thursday disavowed the HAK statement and effectively sided with Zharangutyun and Dashnaktsutyun on the matter.

However, with both sides teaching their own sometimes selective and incomplete accounts of the past, some Armenian historians such as London-based Ara Sarafian believes that such a commission could be useful if conducted and monitored correctly. He also says that just as unfettered access to key documents in the Ottoman Archives is vital,  so too is access to records kept in the Armenian Diaspora. There is no doubt about the veracity of the claims of genocide, the scholar says, but there is still much to be studied.

Key “Armenian archives” on the Armenian Genocide remain closed to critical scholars. […] The most important examples are the archives of the Jerusalem Patriarchate, which include materials from Ottoman Turkey related to the Genocide. Partisan scholars have used these archives in their work, though their assertions can not be checked. In the 1980s the Zoryan Institute collected the private papers of individuals in the diaspora, yet the materials have remained under lock and key. Such standards should not be acceptable within our communities. We should object to them as we object to any manipulation of Ottoman archives in Turkey today.

Nevertheless, the parliamentary opposition Heritage party also seems hell bent on turning the matter into a vote of no confidence in the Armenian president. Note only were some of its members present at yesterday’s ARF-D rally, but the nationalist-leaning party  issued a statement posted today calling for the collection of signatures to force a national referendum on the matter. The party is known for its opposition to any talk of concession to Azerbaijan and Turkey even in the interest of peace.

More alarming, perhaps, some civil society groups are more outspoken. Today, for example, A1 Plus reported that the Institute for Democracy and Human Rights (IDHR), has even resorted to what some might interpret as direct threats to anyone who supports the protocols. Individual members of Heritage as well as nationalist activists such as former Karabakh commander Zhirayr Sefilian have also made implied similar threats in recent months.

We call on the RA National Assembly, all NA Deputies to categorically DENY the ratification of these two documents which endanger the existence and security of the Armenian people. We note that ANY deputy, state official, political figure or party who SIGNS or AFFIRMS these documents that go against the fair rights and vital interests of the Armenian people will be held RESPONSIBLE and will RECEIVE PUNISHMENT by the people.

For now, however, the international community can probably breathe easy given that there is no sign of such groups commading significant support in society. Moreoever, for now all eyes are on Anakara and Baku rather than Yerevan. Many diplomats agree, believing that many Armenians would rather look to the future; honouring the past rather remaining isolated and economically crippled because of it. Fresh back from a tour of the region when he examined such issues, regional analyst Kevork Oskanian agrees and today offered his opinion on the protocols on his specialist blog.

Many Armenians in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are tired of being put at the service of ideological utopias, be they communist or nationalist. What they want is what everyone wants – security and prosperity, for themselves and their children. […] They lived 70 years pursuing a worker’s paradise and won’t waste the next generations limiting their options by trying to attain another pipedream, and that is their full right. These are the real reasons behind the tiny ARF demo and the muted HAK statement in Yerevan.

 

To paraphrase one Yerevan taxi driver, it is time to stop staring at the rear-view mirror and start looking at the road ahead.

Whether the same can be said in six weeks time, however, remains to be seen. For now, what will determine whether the protocols to normalize relations will be accepted or now is the mood in Azerbaijan and Turkey. Speaking to Frontline, one diplomat remains cautiously optimistic about a breakthrough, and perhaps even an accompanying one to end the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh. However, nothing is certain, and many obstacles lie ahead. 

More updates as of when.

Armenia and Turkey Set To Establish Diplomatic Relations

Armenia and Turkey Set To Establish Diplomatic Relations

Tsitsernakaberd, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2008

Following media reports earlier today that Armenian President Serge Sargsyan had “chided Turkey” for not seriously seeking to unconditionally open the border between the two countries comes unexpected news. Within the last few hours at time of writing, reports from the BBC, Reuters, AP and others now say that “domestic discussion” in the estranged neighbouring countries over two diplomatic protocols is set to start and will take up to six weeks.

The announcement comes just hours after the U.S. Ambassador to Armenia, Marie Yovanovitch, had also said she hoped “tangible process” would finally be registered in attempts to normalize relations between the two countries. The border between Turkey and Armenia has been closed since 1993 when the former sided with Azerbaijan in its conflict with the latter over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh.

Over 1 million refugees and IDPs on both sides were forced to flee their homes with Armenian forces still currently in control of over 14 percent of Azerbaijan. Baku is therefore reported to be unhappy with increased international efforts to establish diplomatic relations between the two, and especially in the months following last year’s much publicized “football diplomacy,” until the Karabakh conflict is finally resolved.

Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) protest Turkish President Abdullah Gül’s visit to Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2008

Tsitsernakaberd, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2008

Even so, Obama had already disappointed many ethnic Armenians living in the United States by not officially recognizing the massacres and deportation as genocide, arguing that it is up to both countries to come to terms with their shared past. Now, with Swiss mediation, that looks closer to coming to fruition. Tonight, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Switzerland and Turkey issued a joint statement. 

The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey have agreed to start their internal political consultations on two protocols – the ‘Protocol on the establishment of diplomatic relations’ and the ‘Protocol on the development of bilateral relations’ – which have been initiated in the course of their efforts under Swiss mediation.

 

The two Protocols provide for a framework for the normalization of their bilateral relations within a reasonable timeframe. The political consultations will be completed within six weeks, following which the two Protocols will be signed and submitted to the respective Parliaments for the ratification on each side. Both sides will make their best efforts for the timely progression of the ratification in line with their constitutional and legal procedures. 

 

The normalization of bilateral relations will contribute to the regional peace and stability. The Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey are committed are pursuing their joint efforts with the assistance of Switzerland.

Of course, the protocols will have to be ratified by the Armenian and Turkish parliaments and some analysts are unsure how the populations of both countries will greet this new development given the politicized nature of the media and among some segments of civil society. Nevertheless, for now, what mainly concerns outside observers is how some internal political forces will respond in a region where nationalist ideology is very much the dominant one.

Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) burn the Turkish flag, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2008

In Armenia, for example, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashaktsutyun (ARF-D), which opposes establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey as well as any compromise solution to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, has already left the government coalition over the issue and called for an end to negotiations between Yerevan and Ankara. The nationalist political party has also demanded the resignation of the Armenian Foreign Minister although it did stop short of calling for the president to step down.

Former president and extra-parliamentary opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrossian, Tsitsernakaberd, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2008

Another unknown remains the extra-parliamentary opposition led by former President Levon Ter-Petrossian who some suspect might be ready to exploit such a development despite having favoured establishing relations when in office. However, many diplomats in Yerevan, as well as domestic and regional analysts, doubt that either could pull enough supporters out onto the streets. In recent months, both have been unable to attract more than a few thousand people to protest rallies and demonstrations.

Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) Armenian Youth Federation (AYF) march to Tsitsernakaberd, Yerevan, Armenia
© Onnik James Krikorian  2008

Nevertheless, it also remains to be seen how harsh reaction will be from Azerbaijan as well as from nationalist circles in Turkey, but whatever happens next will have to by 14 October when the Armenian president is due to visit Turkey for a return World Cup qualifying match. Others will also be watching to see whether possible rapprochement will positively impact on the possibility of a framework peace deal on Karabakh if neither side gets cold feet as domestic discussion intensifies.

Indeed, some consider that the move could contribute to peace and stability in the entire region.