Onnik James, Author at Onnik James Krikorian - Journalist, Photojournalist, Consultant

Obama Talks Turkey (Updated)

by Onnik James | Apr 5, 2009 | Armenia, Armenia-Turkey, Turkey, United States

Tsitsernakaberd, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2008

History has the unfortunate habit of repeating itself as Armenians know only too well. This is especially true when it comes to U.S. presidential elections. Without fail, candidates running for the White House promise to recognize the WWI massacre and deportation of as many as 1.5 million Armenians living in the then Ottoman Empire as genocide only to have them renege on such campaign promises when in office.

This time round, however, the large and influential Diaspora lobby in Washington had hoped things would be different with Barack Obama in power, and not least because of the inclusion of activists such as Samantha Power in his transition team. The arrival today of the U.S. president in Turkey, on the other hand, does not bode well. Of course, Armenians shouldn’t be surprised. There are other far more pressing matters for Obama to concern himself with.

To begin with, sending out the right message from secular Turkey to the Islamic world is vital in order to repair the damage caused by his predecessor, George W. Bush. Moreover, the U.S. continues to need Turkey’s help in Iraq and Afghanistan. Since the August war between Georgia and Russia, Turkey’s potential role as a counterbalance to Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus has also become apparent.

When it comes to Armenia, the issue becomes especially complicated. While many in the Diaspora seek recognition of the genocide if only to punish Turkey as well as validate demands for territorial reparations, Armenia instead desparately wants the border with its historic foe opened. Closed during the height of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, Armenian forces occupied 14 percent of Azerbaijan, Turkey’s main ally in the region.

Effectively blockaded by both, most of Armenia’s trade presently transits via Georgia and the August war with Russia effectively cut off its main access to the outside world. There are also hopes that normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey will benefit regional stability and contribute to finding a peaceful solution to the long-running Armenian-Azeri conflict. More significantly, perhaps, a historical commission to examine the genocide will also be established.

This reality was not lost on newspapers such as the New York Times.

We have long criticized Turkey for its self-destructive denial of the World War I era mass killing of Armenians. But while Congress is again contemplating a resolution denouncing the genocide, it would do a lot more good for both Armenia and Turkey if it held back. Mr. Obama, who vowed in the presidential campaign to recognize the event as genocide, should also forbear.

That the massacre and deportation of most of the Ottoman Empire’s Armenian population constitutes genocide is hardly disputed, and not least because the events of 1915-17 were used as a case study by Polish lawyer Raphael Lemkin when he coined the term in 1943. Nevertheless, the precise number of those who perished is still unknown, as are some aspects of the actual events themselves, with some believing that comprehensive study is still necessary.

Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) burn the Turkish flag, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2008

Of course, it is not impossible that Obama will refer to the killings as genocide, but most independent observers consider that to be unlikely. This is especially true given the arrival tomorrow of Armenia’s foreign minister in Istanbul to coincide with Obama’s visit. Many suspect that the two events and their timing are more than coincidental, especially as April is also the month when Armenians worldwide remember the tragic events of 1915-17.

Meanwhile, although hundreds of thousands of Armenians will continue to visit the Genocide memorial in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, on 24 April, it is the Diaspora — or at least those groups which claim they represent millions of ethnic Armenians living abroad — who remain most opposed to any rapprochement. Somewhat Ironically, even local traditionally nationalist parties such as the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnakstutyun (ARF-D) remain relatively silent on the matter.

Others simply consider that Armenia and Turkey might well be on their way to resolving outstanding grievances on their own. Coming to terms with the past matters most in Turkey and not the United States, they argue, and it is that fact alone which is likely to influence Obama’s decision on whether to support such efforts rather than risk derailing them. However, along with Obama’s endorsement of Turkey’s European Union membership bid, it will disappoint many in the Armenian Diaspora.

Update

No sooner as most observers believed that Armenia and Turkey were close to establishing diplomatic relations without preconditions, the latest news is that the Armenian foreign minister chose not to visit Istanbul as originally intended. The reason? Turkish relations with Armenia’s other adversary in the region, Azerbaijan.

The Armenian Yerkir Media TV reports that Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Edward Nalbandian, did not get on the Yerevan-Istanbul flight late this evening, after issuing a terse response to announcements made by Turkish President Gul and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan that Turkey will not lift its blockade of Armenia unless Armenia fulfils Turkish preconditions regarding the Mountainous (Nagorno) Karabagh issue and the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

[…]

I think that the announcements that put forward preconditions to the establishment of Armenian-Turkish relations can be viewed as an attempt to fail the advances registered during the negotiations,” concludes Foreign Minister Nalbandian.

The Armenian Foreign Ministry distributed Minister Nalbandian’s response just before the Armavia flight from Yerevan to Istanbul, at 23:06.

[…]

Now, announcements by the Turkish Prime Minister and the Turkish President, resetting preconditions to the establishment of diplomatic relations with Armenia and to the lifting of the blockade have actually led the Armenia-Turkey negotiations into a rocky road or maybe even an impasse.

The announcement comes after Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, threatened last week to cut off gas supplies to Turkey. Whatever the reasons for the surprise move, however, news of what appears to be an insurmountable obstacle to the normalization of ties between Armenia and Turkey puts new pressure on Obama during his visit.

True, Turkey’s strategic importance to the U.S. remains as crucial as ever, but if the main argument against passage of a resolution recognizing the genocide in the U.S. Congress, as well as regarding the wording of Obama’s 24 April message, was that the two countries were close to resolving their own differences, it now no longer exists.

What will be interesting is whether the sudden change in Turkey’s position will be touched upon in any press conference held with the U.S. president and whether he will privately remind Ankara that he can still allow Congress a free hand in deciding whether to pass the genocide resolution or not. As The Economist’s Amberin Zaman recently wrote:

[The U.S.] should remind Turkey that the security card has its limits; the longer Turkey and Armenia remain at odds, the more likely it is that the genocide resolution will pass, and with it an opportunity to curb Russian influence and to bring calm and prosperity to the Caucasus.”

Update #2

The Armenian foreign minister eventually did travel to Turkey and there have been plenty of developments since. See the comments section below for updates.

End Update

Former President to Run for Yerevan Mayor

by Onnik James | Mar 16, 2009 | Armenia, Balcani Caucaso

Levon Ter-Petrossian after voting in last year’s presidential election, Yerevan, Armenia
© Onnik James Krikorian 2008

Following the recent announcement that the next rally to be staged by the extra-parliamentary opposition will be held just weeks before a crucial municipal election to decide the capital’s mayor, it perhaps comes as no surprise that the Armenian National Congress (ANC) will contest the vote. However, news that its leader, former President Levon Ter-Petrossian, will head the ANC list on 31 May has startled many observers. The second candidate on the opposition list is Stepan Demirchian, himself a former presidential contender and the son of Armenia’s popular Soviet-era boss.

The election will be the first time residents of Yerevan go to the polls to indirectly choose their city head. Previous presidents, including Ter-Petrossian as well as his successor, Robert Kocharian, had resisted calls for a popularly-elected official to govern the political and economic heart of the country until the constitution was finally amended by referendum in 2005. The main candidate for the ruling Republican Party of Armenia is former head of the city’s Kentron district, Gagik Beglarian — better known to most residents as “Chorni (Black) Gago.”

In a written statement, the ANC noted the importance of the vote. “With this move, we are sending a very clear political message to society. We regard the election of Yerevan’s mayor as a very serious opportunity to change the existing dictatorial system and, if you like, as a second round of the 2008 presidential elections,” it read. In last year’s bitterly contested election Ter-Petrossian lost to the current president, Serge Sargsyan. Nearly two weeks of street protests followed the 19 February vote which most observers consider should have gone to a run-off.

On 1 March 2008, the tense post-election standoff ended with fatal clashes that left 10 dead, hundreds wounded, and a 20-day state of emergency declared in the country. “This will be a struggle for lawfulness,” commented ANC office coordinater Levon Zurabian during a press conference held today in Yerevan. “We have come to combat this tyrannical, criminal and oligarchal system to establish democracy in the country. This will not be a struggle against Beglarian. Our main rival is the regime.”

With two damning reports from Human Rights Watch and the U.S. State Department criticizing the post-election situation in Armenia, it is unlikely that the authorities could survive any repeat of the events which followed last year’s presidential vote. However, with the recent collapse of the dram exasperating existing socio-economic tensions, it cannot be ruled out. Indeed, given the potential for an elected mayor to rival the power of the presidency, many already suspect the vote will be tense and probably accompanied by vote-buying and other electoral code violations.

This is especially true given concerns already expressed to me by the head of one international organization monitoring the run-up to the election in addition to developments such as Beglarian’s sudden appointment as mayor earlier this month. Meanwhile, in the hope that a united front can counter the administrative resources available to the incumbent candidate from the party of power, discussions between the ANC and the parliamentary opposition Heritage party to form an electoral bloc are reportedly underway.

Some analysts also suggest that the Republican Party might well decide to find another candidate more able to match the political clout of Ter-Petrossian, but publicly it remains as confident as ever of victory. In the meantime, with news that the first and former president is once again entering the fray, the municipal vote looks likely to be very interesting indeed. Certainly, it will represent the first real test of Armenia’s fledgling democracy since last year’s disputed and highly controversial presidential election.

For more updates, follow me on Twitter at onewmphoto.

Student Anti-Corruption Protest Raises Eyebrows

by Onnik James | Mar 13, 2009 | Armenia

Miasin anti-smoking demonstration, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

Conversation in Yerevan was ablaze this week with talk of an anti-corruption protest that bore all the hall-marks of a coloured revolutionary youth movement at work. On the walls and other structures close to many universities and colleges, the names and photographs of lecturers or other administrative staff alleged to be on the take were posted and accused of taking bribes.

However, despite ostensibly appearing to be a grassroots campaign to fight corruption in the education sector, those responsible for the action were not rebellious young students linked to the political opposition, but members of Miasin, a pro-government youth movement modeled on the pro-Putin Nashi in Russia. Miasin is believed to be controlled by the Armenian presidential spokesperson, Samuel Farmanyan.

A statement on the organization’s web site explained why the action was being staged.

The time has come for the students themselves to work for the establishment of the rule of law in the schools. Corruption in the education system merely serves to spawn similar practices in other sectors since it is the educational system that is churning out the corrupt leaders of tomorrow.

Nevertheless, Miasin had until now largely been considered a joke. Its first actions staged last summer against smoking were seen as a way to deflect the attention of young Armenians away from pro-opposition youth movements such as Hima and more neutral progressive groups such as Henq. Its later action of staging a rock concert with free beer handed out to passer-bys was seen as an attempt to confront overnight anti-government strikers camped out opposite.

Now, questions are being raised about the purpose of Miasin’s most recent action. Certainly, corruption remains a huge problem in the Armenian education sector with one dean even being shot in uncertain circumstances in recent years, but nobody is sure if the anti-corruption activity is genuine or not. Other youth groups, usually restricted in their activities on-campus, have used the issue to mobilize disenchanted youth in the past.

Is Miasin simply trying to exploit the problem of corruption in Yerevan’s universities and campuses, or does it represent a genuine attempt to tackle the problem with the tacit approval of the authorities? Time will tell, but protests initiated by other student groups have resulted in pressure from police, interrogation by the National Security Service, and threats of explusion.

The police, which react harshly to similar actions by opposition groups, have not questioned any of those activists so far. This fact prompted speculation that they were instructed not to stop the leaflet distribution.

But Major-General Nerses Nazarian, chief of the Yerevan police, brushed aside such suggestions. “We can not support or participate in such actions,” he said. “We certainly do not agree with that view. If people have any evidence [of corruption] they can apply to the police.”

Nazarian argued that the police can not investigate the legality of the Miasin action without receiving a written complaint from individuals or organizations targeted by the youth group supporting President Serzh Sarkisian. “I am told that Yerevan State University is preparing to lodge a formal complaint,” he told a news conference. “The police will certainly deal with that fact.”

For more updates, follow me on Twitter at onewmphoto.

Burying the Red Apple

by Onnik James | Mar 8, 2009 | Armenia, Gender, Human Rights

International Women’s Day, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

Armenia today celebrated International Women’s Day in pretty much the same way it always does. As a patriarchal society, women are expected to dress up and men present them with flowers. Forget talk about women’s rights and equality, although one small group of activists from Armenia and the Diaspora had other ideas. Instead of observing the day in the traditional way, they were going to hand out leaflets informing women of their rights in a country where domestic violence remains a problem and patriarchy is the norm. Afterwards, the group was going to bury the “red apple.”

Known locally as “garmir khndzor,” the tradition is perhaps one of Armenia’s most controversial. Referring to the virginal bloodstains left by a bride on her wedding night, challenging the custom remains somewhat of a taboo. Although many families instead present an actual red apple rather than hang out stained bed linen for all to see, the tradition is still observed in some form. Simply put, most Armenian men expect to marry a virgin and double standards governing gender and sexuality in the country define the reality.

Recently, an MP from the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, 35-year-old Karen Avagyan, even publicly stated that he would never marry a woman who wasn’t a virgin, and he is not alone. Most Armenian men are believed to feel the same, and many Armenian women comply. For this reason, the Women’s Resource Center of Armenia, WOW, Utopiana and other NGOs decided to stage their march. Although initially planned as a mock funeral for the “red apple,” plans appear to have been changed at the last moment, perhaps because of local sensitivities.

Instead, the organizers issued a press release stating that their message was not that it was wrong to be a virgin, but that it was a matter of individual choice and not one to be dictated by society. The mock burial was later staged in a private event at the Women’s Resource Center.

Even so, the day was not without its incidents. A group of pro-government bloggers, for example, turned up to mock the event. Indeed, at one stage they effectively disrupted the march by shouting out slogans such as “Struggle, struggle, until sex,” a direct play on that used by the extra-parliamentary opposition (“Struggle, struggle, until the end”) during last year’s disputed presidential election. One even said that he believed such marches should be illegal. “Let them march and the next thing you know, narcotics addicts will want to stage their own demonstrations too,” he said.

Equating narcotics use to women’s rights was a little strange, I pointed out, but he remained unconvinced. “It’s not about women’s rights,” he responded. “It’s about destroying Armenian culture and tradition.”

As if such an attitude wasn’t enough, a police van blocked the path of the demonstrators a few minutes later with officers demanding to know why people were marching. Although the law explicitly states that no authorization is required for rallies if the number of participants is less than 100, the authorities are obviously nervous about the post-election situation in the country. After speaking to the organizers, the march was allowed to continue with a plain clothes policeman walking alongside about 30 women and a few male supporters.

International Women’s Day, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

That is, until the march hit the central Moscow Cinema where another group of policemen told the marchers they could not continue on to Republic Square. True, permission was eventually given, but there is no basis in law for their actions, and the police riot van and policemen that had been called in to follow the demonstration was just a little too much. It was, after all, International Women’s Day.

International Women’s Day, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2009

As one male observer from the Diaspora commented sarcastically, “the men can give presents today, and continue to beat and cheat on their wives tomorrow…”

1 March Anniversary Passes Without Incident

by Onnik James | Mar 2, 2009 | Armenia

Despite some concern that yesterday’s first anniversary of the deadly post-election clashes between opposition supporters and security forces might end in trouble, the day passed peacefully. Although the event to mourn the deaths of 8 civilians and 2 policemen had not been authorized by the municipality, the authorities did not intervene to prevent the gathering.

Given two crtitical reports from Human Rights Watch and the U.S. State Department published last week, few expected otherwise. One year later, the opposition cannot gather the numbers necessary to confront the security services and the government can well do without further news reports of bloodshed on the streets of the Armenian capital.

As it was, at least 10,000 supporters of the extra-parliamentary opposition led by the country’s first and former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, gathered at the capital’s manuscript museum, the Matenadaran, before marching to the scene of last year’s violence. Predictably, the organizers of the protest claimed 100,000 attended the rally while police reported a turnout of 5,000.

Reuters, AFP and the BBC put the number at 10-20,000, but that probably doesn’t matter. The demonstration was the first organized by Ter-Petrossian’s Armenian National Congress (HAK) since last October and attendance was pretty much in line with expectations one year after a disputed presidential election.

Nevertheless, security was high with reports of some roads into the capital being blocked by police and busloads of riot police parked close to the presidential palace. Water cannon trucks were also to be seen close to the Yerevan opera although police were not decked out in riot gear at the Matenadaran itself.

The mood was also noticeably more reserved than at past rallies. While some in the crowd were still understandably angry a year later, most were subdued and some even cheerful, probably glad that such meetings were once again being held. Even so, the applause and cheers greeting the arrival of Ter-Petrossian were less enthusiastic than at past events.

Last year, for example, the opposition told supporters that they were close to victory. This year, however, they were arguably more realistic. Some allege that faced with dwindling attendances at last year’s rallies, Ter-Petrossian might have struck a private deal with the authorities to ease post election tensions.

Whatever the reason, RFE/RL reports that Ter-Petrossian’s speech was more cautious than in the past.

In a 45-minute speech at the Matenadaran rally, Ter-Petrosian again blamed the authorities for the bloodshed. “For a whole year the authorities have done nothing to identify those primarily responsible for the crime — the murderers, shooters, shop looters — because all of them are their people,” he charged. “Quite the opposite. They have saved no effort to cover up their crimes.”

[…]

Ter-Petrosian, who had touted his 2008 campaign as a “classic bourgeois-democratic revolution,” made clear on Sunday that he is now against attempts to effect “immediate regime change” and favors instead a “prolonged struggle” with the Sarkisian administration. “The old-fashioned ideas of revolution or uprising must be finally driven out of our country’s political agenda,” he said. “As long as that hasn’t happened, Armenia can have no chance of becoming a rule-of-law and democratic state. History knows virtually no revolutions that engendered democracy and welfare.”

“Any regime change must take place through solely constitutional means. Namely, by means of legal elections, which is the only guarantee of establishing a democratic state. And we will achieve such legal elections,” added the former president.

The remarks clearly did not strike a chord with sections of the crowd that burst into “Now! Now!” chants when Ter-Petrosian uttered the words “uprising” and “revolution.” He drew only tepid applause from them after finishing the speech.

Warning that the global economic crisis is set to hit Armenia hard, Ter-Petrossian did at least say that the authorities would soon find it harder to remain in power. For most observers, however, the fact that the march to the site of the final post-election stand against last year’s disputed election did not erupt into violence was all that mattered.