Aram Gaspar Sarkisyan, Opposition Rally, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2005

Yesterday, RFE/RL reported that Armenia and Azerbaijan are “close to finalizing a peace deal” over the disputed mainly-Armenian populated territory of Nagorno Karabakh. Today, ArmeniaLiberty reports that a senior opposition figure says that the authorities in Stepanakert are opposed to the idea of a “phased peace deal.”

Senior Armenian sources privy to the peace process have told RFE/RL that this formula is at the heart of a peace accord which is likely to be reached by Armenia and Azerbaijan. They said the deal calls for an independence referendum to be held in Karabakh within 10 to 15 years from the liberation of most of the Armenian-occupied lands in Azerbaijan proper and the restoration of economic links between the two neighbours.

A former foreign policy advisor to the Armenian President, Robert Kocharian, Aram Gaspar Sarkisyan says that he has discussed the details of the deal with the leadership of the breakaway region. Sarkisyan, now in opposition to Kocharian, is also reported to have warned that the demographics of Karabakh might change by then.

“The main demand of the Armenian side is that the issue of Karabakh’s status be solved in accordance with the Artsakh people’s right to self-determination,” he told RFE/RL. “So we must achieve the realization of that right.”

 

“But we don’t have the remaining details,” he added. “As they say, the devil is in the details. A few concrete issues must be clarified. For example, the territory on which the referendum is to be held and the electorate that will take part in the vote.

 

However, Armen Rustamian, a senior member of the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation – Dashnaktsutiun (ARF-D), is reported to agree with the deal in principle. Dashnaktsutiun is part of the three-party coalition government loyal to Kocharian and appears to hold a surprisingly different view of the proposed peace deal than the opposition in Armenia.

Interestlingly, this seems at odds with the position of the Karabakh wing of the ARF-D. Last month, one of their party activists was reportedly beaten by the Minister of Defense and other high ranking Karabakh military officials after accusing them of cowardice out of their readiness to return territory outside of Karabakh proper in the event of a peace deal.

According to ArmInfo, the phased peace deal also deals with the issue of the Turkish-Armenian border. In the event of a peace deal, it reports, the border will be opened. Incidentally, as reported by PanArmenian.net, the OSCE Minsk co-chairs charged with the task of mediating between the two sides are due to arrive in Yerevan tomorrow from where they will also visit Stepanakert.

The mediators have already visited Baku.

Church Service, Stepanakert Theatre, Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik James Krikorian 1994

RFE/RL reports that Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to finalizing a peace deal as early as the end of this year. While this sounds too fantastic, rumors to this effect have been circulating around Yerevan since the end of last year. In the spring, high profile public comments from the Armenian President and Defense Minister confirmed Yerevan’s position that “painful concessions are necessary for peace” in order to achieve a final solution to the “frozen conflict” over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh.

The details of the proposed peace deal reported match precisely the rumors that have been circulating since November 2004, and according to RFE/RL, have effectively been confirmed by anonymous sources in the Armenian government.

The high-level sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, have told RFE/RL that the conflicting parties have already agreed on the key points of a peace deal that could be formalized as early as this year or at the beginning of next. At the heart of it, they say, is the idea of a referendum in which the Karabakh Armenians will decide whether they want to be independent, become a part of Armenia or return under Azerbaijani rule.

 

Some Armenian and Western officials have hinted at the possibility of such a vote over the past year that has seen major progress toward the resolution of the Karabakh dispute. Presidents Ilham Aliev and Robert Kocharian could build upon it at their next meeting scheduled to take place in the Russian city of Kazan on August 27.

  

The Armenian sources claimed that the referendum would be held within 10 to 15 years from the signing of a peace agreement and would follow the return of five of the seven occupied Azerbaijani districts around Karabakh. They said the Lachin district, which serves as the shortest overland link between Armenia and Karabakh, would remain under Armenian control, while agreement has yet to be reached on the seventh occupied territory, Kelbajar. The Armenians are ready to pull out of Kelbajar only after a date is set for the referendum, while the Azerbaijani side is demanding its liberation along with the five other districts, the sources said.

Of course, being close to peace and actually getting there are two entirely different things but it has to be said that the feeling among those privy to some of the details have been very optimistic about a peace deal since early 2005. However, as with the Key West talks held in 2001, it remains to be seen how political forces in Azerbaijan will react to this news – if true – so close to the November Parliamentary Elections. Interestingly, Itar-Tass reports that “political consultations” were held on resolution of the Karabagh conflict in Baku today.

On the subject of Lachin, a photo essay I shot there can be found online here. There is also an article I wrote for Transitions Online on settlement in Lachin available on my web site too.