On September 18, Armenian law enforcement announced the arrest of three individuals accused of forming an armed group to overthrow the government. Four others are currently wanted by the police for recruiting people for three months of training in Russia, with a payment of 220,000 rubles (approximately $2,360) for their participation in said training. Five of the men are Armenian citizens, while two are ethnic Armenians who were formerly residents of now-dissolved Karabakh. The Armenian Investigative Committee claimed that recruits were taken to a Russian military base outside of Rostov-on-Don dubbed “Arbat” for training. They were then allegedly informed that the purpose of this training was to help overthrow the current Armenian government in a coup. Several recruits refused and returned to Armenia, claiming they alerted the police. Media has reported that no such military base exists. There is, however, a Russian militia made up of ethnic Armenians named “Arbat” (“the Armenian Battalion”), which has been associated with Rostov-on-Don and has fought in Ukraine (FIP, September 18). Moreover, the Armenian Church blessed the militia in Moscow, once it was given orders to fight in Donbas against Ukraine. One of those detained was Serob Gasparyan, who is also known for leading another militant group, Black Panther. Gasparyan is a fierce critic of the Pashinyan government. The trend of militancy in Armenia and among the Armenian diaspora abroad over the past thirty years could inform the country’s authorities  how to deal with the rise in discontent with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s premiership.

On the same day as the report about this alleged coup, Andranik Kocharyan, an Armenian senior government lawmaker, told a conference in Yerevan that “internal and external enemies continue to seek ways to regain power, including through terrorism.” This was an implied reference to the former regimes of Armenian presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova denies that Moscow was behind the alleged coup, as does Serob Gasparyan.

 

In addition to many members of Arbat having fought in Karabakh, it is said to have been involved in the crackdown on Euromaidan protesters in Kyiv in 2014. In 2022, Putin awarded the Order of Courage to Arbat Commander Hayk Gasparyan, an MMA fighter and a former member of the Wagner Group, for his efforts in the Battle of Soledar in occupied Ukraine. Gasparyan is now under EU sanctions, following his early release from prison after having been recruited to fight in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Gasparyan also recruited others from Russia’s penal colonies to fight in Ukraine with the Wagner Group. An anti-Pashinyan analyst alleges that ethnic Armenians and Armenian citizens have been actively recruited for deployment in Ukraine, but Pashinyan has denied such claims.

 

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Ever since the 2020 war with Azerbaijan, security surrounding the Armenian Prime Minister has notably increased, while the risk of violent extremist and terrorist incidents is becoming more apparent. In January 2021, one British risk consultancy warned that Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day war could lead to the emergence of informal groups launching insurgent-style attacks on the border and elsewhere in the future, especially important in the context of hotly debated transport link between Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan in the future and on the border. Two days before the outbreak of the 2020 war, Armenian media also expressed concerns that local militias posed a potential risk to the Pashinyan government, describing them as operating outside the Ministry of Defense’s control. In November, the government confirmed that one such group, VOMA (Art of Survival), has been constructing its own fortifications on the border with Azerbaijan.

 

An international watchdog warned just before the 2020 war that the “Armenian national identity is deeply rooted in historical grievances relating to persecution by external enemies, offering a rich material for militant radicalization.” The precedent of ASALA, a US-proscribed Armenian terrorist organization active in the 1970s and 1980s, is testament to that. Although the Armenian government is aware of the dangers posed by such groups and radicalized individuals with access to weapons, it is at least likely in communication with foreign intelligence services abroad. Until now, however, the issue has not been addressed directly using both soft and hard methods. It seems inevitable that sooner or later, it will have to embrace preventative approaches, too, including the possibility that those with military experience could engage in domestic attacks again as well as being in high demand in other conflict zones, such as Ukraine. The removal of Russian Federal Security Service Border Guards from Yerevan’s airport could be one first step in addressing the latter, demonstrating that the Pashinyan government is working toward prioritizing the Armenian people over foreign entities with that in mind.

The full piece is available here.