It was a glimpse of what has otherwise been lost – human contact and friendship. I think it was Thomas de Waal that told me in an interview in Yerevan in the early 2000s that one of the greatest losses in the conflict had been the exodus of ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia and ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan. Today, coexistence and familiarity only exists in third countries such as Georgia.
It is now 31 years since I first travelled from London to the South Caucasus to report on what was then Nagorno-Karabakh. Since that time, I have covered nearly every aspect of the conflict – Azerbaijani prisoners of war and civilian hostages during my first visit to Karabakh in 1994; ethnic Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan struggling to rebuild their lives in Armenia later that same year and again from 1999; and, throughout the 2000s, the ever-present threat of landmines and unexploded ordnance scattered across the seven formerly occupied Azerbaijani regions surrounding Karabakh. Those dangers continue to claim lives even today.
As diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan once again make headlines, the real challenge lies not in high-level meetings or momentary gestures, but in the unfortunate disconnect between the elites and the populations they represent. For almost thirty years, press release after press release declared that talks inched towards peace. Hopes were premature. The sides will next month mark the anniversary of the last war fought five years ago.
Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring.
For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators.
Depending on whom you ask, last week’s meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi was either a historic development or simply another routine step in the still-fragile peace process. In an interview with Slovak media prior to the talks last week, Azerbaijani presidential advisor Hikmet Hajiyev even claimed the conflict between the sides is now over.
Less than a year before crucial parliamentary elections, political tensions in Armenia continue to rise (see EDM, May 21). For over a month, an acrimonious war of words has been waged online between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the country’s spiritual leader, Catholicos Karekin II (also known as Ktrij Nersessyan) (see EDM, June 23). Pashinyan accuses Karekin II of interfering in the country’s politics and fathering at least one illegitimate child despite a sacred vow of celibacy. Such claims, including others of corruption and autocratic rule, predate Pashinyan’s premiership and have shadowed the spiritual leader since his inauguration as Catholicos in October 1999.
The demise of the OSCE Minsk Group, an internationally mandated effort to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan, ends an era that spanned almost three decades. Cochaired by France, Russia, and the United States, it failed to achieve its goal amid rivalry between the co-chair countries themselves and disagreement between the parties.
After over a month of harsh and inflammatory rhetoric directed against the Armenian Apostolic Church, and especially its head, Catholicos Karekin II, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan late last month declared a ceasefire in the escalating war of words. The truce ostensibly took effect on at the very beginning of this month and will last until the end of the week when it will be assessed.