As this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku draws closer, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be drifting further apart. Despite hopes that the opposite would be true, a lack of clarity and confusion instead continues to reign. Does the draft Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations contain 17 points or 16? Initially, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced that consensus had been reached on 13 points while 3 were partially agreed and there was no agreement at all on a fourth.
CATEGORY RESULTS
Militant Groups Resurface in Armenia’s Struggle Against Radicalization
Last month, Armenia arrested several individuals accused of recruiting others to stage a coup in the country. The group has a history of recruiting Armenian citizens as foreign fighters in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Armenian government faces a potential vulnerability from militant groups as progress occurs in the normalization process with Azerbaijan following the 2020 44-day war and recent conflict in Karabakh, fueling discontent among many Armenians.
Yerevan and Baku at a crossroads
Though there had been hopes that some kind of agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be initialled or signed by November this year, the situation looks increasingly uncertain as Russia once again enters the fray.
Pashinyan Press Conference Highlights Progress and Pitfalls in Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks
Pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to deliver a peace agreement with Azerbaijan before the 2026 parliamentary elections is mounting, driven by questions surrounding the longevity of Armenian economic growth.
Pashinyan’s efforts to advance negotiations have seen both progress and setbacks. Unresolved issues, particularly those related to regional connectivity and the influence of external actors such as Iran, highlight the complexity of achieving a lasting resolution.
One Caucasus Festival in Georgia Bridges Regional Divides
This month, against the backdrop of the Caucasus Mountains, a unique four-day festival in Georgia celebrated its tenth anniversary. Held annually in August, the multi-disciplinary One Caucasus festival aims to rediscover a spirit of unity and cooperation that once flourished among the diverse nations of the region.
End of an Era: Russian Border Guards Depart Yerevan’s Airport
Russian border guards left Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport last week, concluding their nearly 32-year presence. The first point of contact for many citizens and tourists arriving by air in Armenia, their exact duties and numbers were never formally announced. The 1992 agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia instead only refers to the Border Directorate of the Federal Security Service (FSB) ensuring the protection of the border with Turkiye and Iran.
Clash Over Armenian Constitution Hinders Peace Process
Since the exodus last fall of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the once disputed but now dissolved territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, many have believed a resolution to the three-decade-long conflict to be within reach. Up until Azerbaijan’s operation to disarm the remnants of the breakaway region’s military last September, the region was internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but was governed and populated by ethnic Armenians.
Ahead of November, Armenia and Azerbaijan juggle for their geopolitical position
In the lead-up to this year’s NATO Summit in Washington D.C., it was uncertain whether Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov would meet. However, a last-minute announcement confirmed that they would, albeit not in a bilateral format, but with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Expectations were low, given disagreements over Azerbaijani demands for Armenia to change its constitution and the United States now apparently pushing its own vision for unblocking trade and communication in the region.
Transparency needs to replace speculation and intrigue in the current phase of Armenia-Azerbaijan talks
At the beginning of the month, the Armenian and Azerbaijani border demarcation commissions exchanged documents detailing the regulation of future activities. But this was not the unified document that had been expected. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had earlier that day refused to answer questions from the media as to whether the deadline set for such a document had been met or not. Even Radio Free Europe were unsure. While its Yerevan Bureau reported that the two sides hadn’t in fact managed to agree on the draft regulations, its Prague Headquarters at least reported progress.