On October 21, 2025, an Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL) Gulfstream G650, call sign 4K-ASG, touched down at Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport. It was a historic event, commented many.
It was the first time an AZAL flight had landed in Armenia for three decades, claimed others. In fact, neither was correct though such minor inaccuracies probably don’t matter.
Yesterday marked the fourth anniversary of the untimely passing of Armenian theatrical director turned peace activist Georgi Vanyan. He was 58.
This Saturday marks the fifth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War. To be honest, and personally speaking, it had always seemed the continuation of the first waged between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. After all, in the three decades between both, the conflict had nearly always been described as ‘frozen’ rather than resolved – at least until it wasn’t.
Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours.
It was a glimpse of what has otherwise been lost – human contact and friendship. I think it was Thomas de Waal that told me in an interview in Yerevan in the early 2000s that one of the greatest losses in the conflict had been the exodus of ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia and ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan. Today, coexistence and familiarity only exists in third countries such as Georgia.
It is now 31 years since I first travelled from London to the South Caucasus to report on what was then Nagorno-Karabakh. Since that time, I have covered nearly every aspect of the conflict – Azerbaijani prisoners of war and civilian hostages during my first visit to Karabakh in 1994; ethnic Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan struggling to rebuild their lives in Armenia later that same year and again from 1999; and, throughout the 2000s, the ever-present threat of landmines and unexploded ordnance scattered across the seven formerly occupied Azerbaijani regions surrounding Karabakh. Those dangers continue to claim lives even today.
As diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan once again make headlines, the real challenge lies not in high-level meetings or momentary gestures, but in the unfortunate disconnect between the elites and the populations they represent. For almost thirty years, press release after press release declared that talks inched towards peace. Hopes were premature. The sides will next month mark the anniversary of the last war fought five years ago.
Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring.
For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators.