With the first anniversary of the 2020 war in Nagorno Karabakh approaching it seems timely to consider where Armenia and Azerbaijan are in the post-war environment. The answer to that question won’t surprise anyone. The situation is not good.
Nationalist and ultra-nationalist narratives increasingly resemble those disseminated by violent extremist groups. Not only can themes be similar, but so too are the ways in which they are amplified and disseminated online via different mediums and platforms. They also target specific demographic groups, but there are few if any attempts to address or effectively counter them. This is especially true in the South Caucasus.
I’ve been covering the Karabakh problem since first visiting in 1994 and I remember being told by one academic back then that it would take 20 years to find a lasting solution to the conflict. Sadly, as way of a reality check, it’s now been 27 years since that 1994 ceasefire.
Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso has published my latest update on how the 2020 Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan might affect Georgia’s two largest ethnic minorities. In 2016, OpenDemocracy published a similar piece of mine following the 4-day war. Local ethnic Armenian and Azerbaijani civil society activists warn that radicalisation among some individuals in the two communities continues, but that the situation still nonetheless remains relatively calm. This is an issue that does need to be monitored, however.
Stratfor has published my piece on the mysterious disappearance from Tbilisi of Afgan Mukhtarli. Many believe that the dissident Azerbaijani journalist was abducted because of his writing and other activities.
After covering last year’s One Caucasus Festival for Meydan TV there was no way I was going to miss this year’s. That was just as well as there was definitely more international media interest in the event that brings Armenians, Azerbaijanis, and Georgians together in a small, somewhat isolated village located about two hours away from Tbilisi.
One of the standout bands at this year’s One Caucasus Festival in Georgia was undoubtedly the Baku-based Les Gardiens du Silence, a collective playing improvised world and spiritual music. They had also performed in Tbilisi a week earlier, and did so again soon after the festival, but it was their performances around a campfire at One Caucasus that was the most enjoyable.
Stratfor has published my text and photographs on the One Caucasus Festival held in the village of Tserakvi in Georgia. It’s aim is to bring together young Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Georgian musicians and other artists to work together to build a common image of a united and peaceful region.
No sooner than I’m back from Yerevan, where I presented my work on alternative and counter narratives in the context of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) in general, than yet another exchange of fire has left innocent civilians dead on the Line of Contact (LoC) separating Karabakh forces, which include a significant number of conscripts from Armenia, and the Azerbaijani military.