Nikol Pashinyan is a populist. Whether on the domestic or international scene, it is difficult to consider him a statesman. Populism defines his words and permeates his actions. But in comparison with those leaders before him, he is also a rarity in Armenia’s post-independence history – he is a democratically elected leader. Despite the devastating defeat in Armenia’s recent war with Azerbaijan in 2020, Pashinyan emerged victorious in snap parliamentary elections held just seven months later.
CATEGORY RESULTS
Assault on Yerevan Police Station Underlines Risk of Violent Opposition to Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace
For many, the news of the assault on a police station in Yerevan over the weekend brought back memories of the two-week siege of another station back in 2016. The reasons were similar too. Eight years ago, just a few months after the four-day war, rumours spread throughout Armenia that then President Serzh Sargsyan was under pressure to accept the so-called Lavrov Plan in which five out of seven regions then occupied by Armenian forces would be handed back to Azerbaijan as part of an anticipated peace deal.
The Challenges and Contradictions of Displacement in Armenia
Almost six months after the mass exodus of the Karabakh Armenians, their plight in Armenia remains as uncertain as ever. On Wednesday, some will even protest in Yerevan’s Freedom Square. There had been no major humanitarian crisis, despite claims of mass starvation as they crossed into Armenia via the Lachin checkpoint in late September, but the situation for many remains one of desperation or despair. A recent report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) highlighted that clearly earlier this month.
Clarity, Consistent Rhetoric, and Multitrack Diplomacy Still Lacking in Armenia-Azerbaijan Normalisation Talks
It was touch and go for a while. Even a day before this year’s prestigious Munich Security Conference it was unclear whether both Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev would attend. In the past, Armenian leaders have more often shunned the event and even despite December’s much-lauded bilateral COP-29 joint statement made bilaterally by Baku and Yerevan, the war of words between the sides unfortunately continues.
Pashinyan’s Constitutional Gambit
Reforming the constitution of any nation is inherently challenging, but in Armenia it has always proven particularly controversial. Introduced by referendum in 1995 under then President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the current constitution has been amended twice by his successors – Robert Kocharyan in 2005 and Serzh Sargsyan in 2015.
Roadblock to peace: the geopolitical quagmire of the “Zangezur Corridor”
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the 1994 ceasefire agreement that put fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the Soviet-era mainly ethnic Armenian Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) on hold – or at least until it escalated into war in 2016 and more devastatingly in 2020. Despite the involvement of international mediators, peace remained elusive despite occasional claims to the contrary. The sides were said to have gotten close, but never enough to prevent tens of thousands dying in over three decades of conflict.
Landmines and unexploded ordnance remain an obstacle for the future development of the South Caucasus
As thousands of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) return to their former places of residence in the seven regions surrounding what remains of Nagorno Karabakh, the problem of landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXO) is as pressing as ever. Last month, Vugar Suleymanov, Chair of Azerbaijan’s National Agency for Mine Action (ANAMA), reported that 111,207 hectares of contaminated land had been cleared in past three years since the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire statement.
New Narratives Necessary for an Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace
Commonspace, a publication by LINKS Europe, has published my latest on the need for positive and alternative narratives in the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict. This has been a problem for decades and while any grim reality needs to be reported on that should not be at the expense of genuine real-world positive examples that can at least represent a glimmer of hope for two societies that remain isolated from each other.
What future for the Armenians of Karabakh?
Few were surprised when just over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled Karabakh in late September. Their departure followed Baku’s military operation to ostensibly take out the last remnants of local ethnic Armenian forces in the breakaway region. For almost three years since the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire statement, local analysts and political figures in Yerevan said that no-one would remain in Karabakh unless it received some kind of autonomy, independence, or security guarantees.