Fifteen years after the 1994 ceasefire put the conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh on hold, reports that the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan might be moving closer to a final peace settlement have caught many unaware. The last time international mediators were as optimistic about the prospects for peace was in 2001 at Key West, Florida. However, no agreement materialized.
With some media outlets reporting that momentum to striking a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues, the reality on the ground in both republics is that the two populations are not ready for resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict based on mutual compromise. The situation is reportedly worse in Azerbaijan, but many Armenians also seem unwilling to consider the return of at least six of seven regions currently serving as a buffer zone.
Armenians have read a lot about the frozen conflict over the disputed mainly-Armenian populated territory of Nagorno Karabakh, but such articles are usually from partisan sources inside Armenia or in the Diaspora. Seldom does the Armenian press carry impartial and objective reports, and of late there has been some clandestine funding of less than objective articles on the situation in and around Karabakh to serve certain political interests.
For the first time since the collapse of the former Soviet Union an Azerbaijani airliner has landed at Armenia’s main Zvartnots Airport. In what was no doubt as much symbolic in the context of continuing attempts to resolve the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh than simply travel, the Azal Airlines TU–134 carried the three OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs charged with the task of mediating a solution.
Earlier this month, Tbilisi celebrated Tbilisoba, the city’s annual harvest festival. Over the years it has changed significantly and seems smaller than before. I first covered the event in 2011 but the best so far remains 2014 when there was more representation of traditional Georgian folk dance and music as well as by ethnic minorities such as the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities. This year, that was held relatively far away from Tbilisi’s Old Town and Rike Park with very little publicity or in some media any at all. Nonetheless, those that attended appeared to enjoy themselves sufficiently and I managed to photo stories.
As this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku draws closer, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be drifting further apart. Despite hopes that the opposite would be true, a lack of clarity and confusion instead continues to reign. Does the draft Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations contain 17 points or 16? Initially, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced that consensus had been reached on 13 points while 3 were partially agreed and there was no agreement at all on a fourth.
Last month, Armenia arrested several individuals accused of recruiting others to stage a coup in the country. The group has a history of recruiting Armenian citizens as foreign fighters in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Armenian government faces a potential vulnerability from militant groups as progress occurs in the normalization process with Azerbaijan following the 2020 44-day war and recent conflict in Karabakh, fueling discontent among many Armenians.
Though there had been hopes that some kind of agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be initialled or signed by November this year, the situation looks increasingly uncertain as Russia once again enters the fray.
Pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to deliver a peace agreement with Azerbaijan before the 2026 parliamentary elections is mounting, driven by questions surrounding the longevity of Armenian economic growth.
Pashinyan’s efforts to advance negotiations have seen both progress and setbacks. Unresolved issues, particularly those related to regional connectivity and the influence of external actors such as Iran, highlight the complexity of achieving a lasting resolution.
For many, the news of the assault on a police station in Yerevan over the weekend brought back memories of the two-week siege of another station back in 2016. The reasons were similar too. Eight years ago, just a few months after the four-day war, rumours spread throughout Armenia that then President Serzh Sargsyan was under pressure to accept the so-called Lavrov Plan in which five out of seven regions then occupied by Armenian forces would be handed back to Azerbaijan as part of an anticipated peace deal.
This year, Azerbaijani-Georgian communities across Georgia came together to celebrate Novruz with a variety of events and festivities.
Almost six months after the mass exodus of the Karabakh Armenians, their plight in Armenia remains as uncertain as ever. On Wednesday, some will even protest in Yerevan’s Freedom Square. There had been no major humanitarian crisis, despite claims of mass starvation as they crossed into Armenia via the Lachin checkpoint in late September, but the situation for many remains one of desperation or despair. A recent report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) highlighted that clearly earlier this month.